Wildcard Round Lines & Values

***Updated 1/03/09 1:40 AM EST***

Week #17 Recommended Plays

Week #17 Lines

*** UPDATED 12/28/08 12:45 AM EST***

Manual Adjustments Based on Motivaton to Lines:

Giants -5 (though Coughlin says he likes to play to win)
Colts -1 (VY versus Sorgii a small advantage for TEN in the 2nd half)
Manual Adjustments Made to Totals for Weather/Resting Starters

NYG/MIN -1
BUF/NE -4
BAL/JAC -1
CIN/KC -1.5
GB/DET -4
PIT/CLE -0.5
IND/TEN -3
NYJ/MIA -1.5
PHI/DAL -1.5

Many games with wind forecasts of 20-30 mph and upwards with gusts.

Ravens @ Cowboys Week #16

Ravens @ Cowboys

As a lover of burgers and fries (in a mostly uncaring universe one of the few things to be grateful for this Holiday season is that this most delicious of meals is widely available and eminently affordable), I have newfound disdain for CB Frank Walker of the Ravens, for he committed sacrilege by spitting on the Berger last week. He and Mitch got into a scuffle near the end of last week’s game when Frank apparently attempted a cheap shot to kicker Reed’s leg. The lowly punter/holder defended his fellow non-fierce position playing teammate, and Walker garnished Berger with a fully hocked loogie for his efforts. Frank, you’re as dead to me as a Thanksgiving Turkey. Perhaps Frank’s frustration flourished at the end of the game because the Ravens were once again about to lose to a quality team. The Ravens this year have only 2 victories versus teams with a winning record.

On the ebb and flow chart, the Ravens are ebbing and the Cowboys are flowing. The Cowboys’ defense is stiffening up like a corn starched collar, while the Raven’s flaccid Flacco-led offense is wilting like a winter weed. I could name the numbers, but alluding alliteration makes taut the tale.

Ray Rice, Ravens’ RB, is very “?”, so it’ll be up to Mr. McClain to carry the load with Mr. McGahee finding the field for 3rd downs. No less than 3 starting offensive lineman for the Ravens’ saw limited practice time this week but will be starting regardless. The aforementioned Frank Walker was cursed by karma with a semi-crippled calf for his uncouth projectile “cough,” and SS Ed Reed didn’t practice all week as well to save himself for the game. The Ravens’ secondary is really not in the best shape right now to be facing a team with as many threats as the Cowboys. When Samari “1 wheel short of a full” Rolle is the healthiest guy in your secondary, it’s a cause for concern.

Tony Romo practiced fully on Thursday and claims no ill-effects from the knee to the back he took last week. Marion Barber and his bad toe are “?”, so the choice may continue to be more runs for Tashard. The Cowboys’ defense, sans the sordid sustaination of injuries at safety this season, are healthy. Even Pacman Jones has had a Christmas miracle recovery and will be available for this game.

The Ravens’ offense is ill-equipped for late game comebacks, while the Cowboys’ defense is perfectly suited for punishing panicky pass-happy offenses, as they demonstrated versus the Giants’ last week. Last week’s Cowboys’ game was a blueprint for this week’s possible last game ever in the Cowboy’s current confines.

The Cowboys were a recommended play when the line dipped to -4, but are still worth a weaker wager at the current -5.5.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 16 – Cowboys 24

COLTS @ JAGUARS WEEK #16

The Jag Offense came alive last week versus the Packers. Garrard had a better than 100 QB rating versus a good but fading Green Bay pass defense. In that game they only ran the ball 18 times in spite of never trailing by more than 6 points, which is uncharacteristic for the Jaguars. Surely the fresh absence of Fred Taylor and their “nothing to lose” standing contributed to their decision to attack the Packers through the air even though the Packers’ run defense is their weakness. Backward thinking by the Jags got them the win, nevertheless. Perhaps the Packers were stacking the box and the Jags were merely taking advantage. With WRs Jerry Porter out and Matt Jones suspended, Dennis Northcutt had a big game going for 5 catches and well over a hundred yards. Suddenly the Jags have a deep threat.

The Colts’ defense is rather similar to the Packers – good at defending the pass and porous against the run. I suspect the Jaguars will utilize the play action quite a bit to penalize Indy for keeping many defenders close to the line of scrimmage. Indy has little choice, though, as they have to stop the run first.

The Colts’ offense should be incredibly pass-happy in this game. Addai is just coming back from injury, and a couple of their offensive lineman will be dinged up but playing. Hurt linemen typically fare better pass blocking than run blocking. Regardless, Manning and Co. will look to abuse the Jags’ secondary early and often. With cornerback Rashean Mathis lost for the year, the Jags are forced to put Brian Williams back into the starting role at cornerback, and the Colts completed every pass they threw against him last year when he was playing cornerback. Other than the secondary, the rest of the Jags’ defense is in okay shape. The front 7 have seen a few revolving injuries since about week #3 this season, and then veteran LB Mike Peterson was benched a few weeks ago after a tiff with head coach Del Rio. 2nd year LB Justin Durant got a starting job on the outside and Daryl Smith was moved inside when Peterson was sent to the doghouse. Now that Smith is lost for the year Peterson returns to the middle. Paul Spicer out at DE is the lone man missing from the front 4 that started the season.

Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities that will allow the opponent opportunities to exploit the necessary defensive adjustments. The Jags should find plenty of holes in the secondary, while the Colts should find ample running lanes or a lot of short passes to Addai that can quickly turn into decent gains. That being said, I think the Colts will still have a hard time running the ball even with the Jags defending the pass first, as the Colts are plain awful running the ball – the worst in the league by my rankings. The Jags, meanwhile, are near league average passing the ball, ranked 16th, so overall they’re better suited to take what the defense gives them.

The Colts are playing pretty good football, having won their last 7, but they haven’t exactly passed through murderer’s row, as none of their last 5 opponents, the Texans, Chargers, Browns, Bengals and Lions, has a winning record. They let the toothless Lions hang around well into the 2nd half last week at home. Only 3 times this season have the Colts beat a team by more than 6 points, and none of those have been on the road. I say look for more of the same this Thursday night. This essentially being a playoff game for the Colts means they shouldn’t be easing up offensively regardless of the score until very late in the contest, so I like the Over 44 as well. Weather conditions in Jacksonville Thursday night will be ideal.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 24 – Jaguars 21

Week #16 Lines & Values

***UPDATED 12/20/08 1:00 AM EST***

I've made several hopeful "improvements" to the lines this week, though the tendency of centrality in the totals still exists to some degree.

Keep in mind I've done nothing to alter the lines based on motivation. I'm of a mind that most teams show up to play until possibly the last game of the season, regardless of their record. As a handicapper with no connection to the psyche of any teams, gauging motivation and converting that to a pointspread is a near impossible quantifying task. In week 17 look for teams out of the playoffs to play a bit softer on defense, that's about all I'm willing to commit to.

Injuries and weather updated and reflected in the totals.

Week #16 Plays

2 Unit:

OAK +7.5 (-120)
ARI +8
ARI/NE OVER 44.5
ATL/MIN UNDER 46

1 UNIT

SEA +5
ATL +3.5 (-112)
JAC +6.5 (-101)
NO -6.5 (-120)
PIT/TEN OVER 34.5

2/3 UNIT:

NO/DET UNDER 50
STL/SF UNDER 44.5

Week #15 2nd Half Plays

One ray of light bit of good luck with San Diego getting the onsides kick and scoring at the end of the game. WTF is happening in ARI, though? Vikings 82 yard punt return and now a touchdown on 3rd and 15? It looks like our many consecutive weeks of winning with average to poor luck may come to end this week unless ARI really turns it around. WAS not scoring a touchdown when they were down at the CIN 10 at the end of the game cost us two plays as well.

And now Moss on an 80 yard touchdown? Such bad, bad luck. At least those who've been around since the beginning of the season have big cushion to work with, lol, because it's looking like a shit storm today.

1.5 Unit:

ARI -6.5 (-115)

1 Unit:

CAR -2.5 (-112)
NYJ -3 (-116)
NYJ/BUF OVER 20.5 (-102)

2/3 Unit:

DAL +0.5 (-126)
DAL/NYG UNDER 21
CAR TEAM TOTAL OVER 13
HOU +2
WAS/CIN OVER 19.5

1/2 Unit:

OAK +3
GB PICK

Patriots @ Raiders

Patriots @ Raiders “Riding the Fade Train”

The Patriots’ Fade Train has paid off handsomely the last two weeks, with neither game receiving so much as a scare down the 4th quarter stretch. The Steelers outscored the Patriots 23-0 in the 2nd half for a convincing 23 point victory as small road dogs, while the Patriots had to score the last 11 points of the game last week at Seattle just to win the game, which didn’t result in a cover for them, as the line went from an opener of near 4 points up to an unbelievable 7.5 before kickoff (and no, Seneca Wallace starting at QB didn’t come even close to justifying that kind of line move as he had a hell of a good day, garnering a 129 passer rating versus Cassel’s 84). On the strength of these last two wins, the Patriots’ Fade Train I’ve been riding since week #3 is firmly in the black. It’s humorous, but true – I’ve bet against the Patriots in every game since backing them as dogs versus the Jets in week #2. Last year with all of the inflated spreads it was almost the same story: betting against the Patriots every week. Last year we were initially punished as the Patriots continued to cover the large spreads for a while, but we got it all back and then some as I believe they only covered one game for something like the final third of their season.

Not all stops on the Fade Train are appealing as others. The station in Oakland is decrepit from the abuse that visiting teams often inflict on the lowly Raiders. Wandering through this graffiti covered, mystery stained, reeking mostly of what would have to be guessed as stale urine train station can leave one wondering if perhaps this is the week to take a Greyhound bus and just hope that someone doesn’t decapitate you and feast on your skull mid trip (true story for those of you who didn’t see the story in the news earlier this year, lol). Well, pull up your Dickies, put on your Carhart overalls, and lace up your Timberlands, because we are not about to get off the Patriots’ Fade Train this week.

An opening caveat: The Raiders this year may be the worst first half team in the history of the NFL! They’ve only scored one offensive touchdown in the first half in 13 games this season. They’ve been outscored by their special teams unit who have a punt and kick return touchdown in the first half. Slow starts have been incredibly damaging to the Raiders’ hopes of winning many games, and not just for the obvious reason that the team with more points wins, lol. The Raiders are, of course, a run-first team. They do it moderately well. They are not, by any stretch of the imagination, a passing team. They have the worst pass offense in the league. They could attack an unsuspecting nudist colony and still lose the ensuing battle, such is their lack of weapons in the passing game. Not once this season have they been able to overcome a deficit of any number in the second half for a win, such is the impotency of their passing game. The key, therefore, will be for them to keep the game close so they can run the ball effectively and have a believable play action. Here’s why they should be able to…

The Patriots will be heavily favoring the run themselves this week. The weak half of the Raiders’ defense is their run defense, and teams have exploited that all season long. The Raiders have only once kept a team below 100 yards rushing this season, and that was in week #2 at Kansas City, a game which the Raiders led pretty much from wire to wire, which also happened to be only game in which a Raiders’ opponent ran the ball less than 20 times. The Patriots have done a pretty good job running on any but the top tier run defenses.

Matt Cassel’s father tragically passed away, and Matt just returned to practice on Thursday, leaving him not much time to prep for a good pass defense. Every game is of critical importance for the Patriots’ playoff chances, so I expect the Patriots to employ a mostly conservative passing game to complement their running game. Wes Welker will get his usual dozen short catches or so, lol.

The Patriots’ defense is starting to look like a halftime “Let’s honor the old players” program. Junior Seau, Roosevelt Colvin, shoot…I’m not even going to blink twice if I see Troy Brown at cornerback at some point during the game. The injuries started in the secondary, crept up into the linebacking corps and have now infected the defensive line. The result? 134 yards of rushing for the Seahawks last week. The Patriots really need Vince Wilfork back at nose tackle this game, and he’s still “?” after leaving last game with an injury and not returning. Either way, players playing injured can only be lower than their optimal level, not better.

As the game should be played pretty close to the vest, with scoring hopefully not coming in fits or bunches for the Patriots (though the Raiders can certainly yak up a bunch via botched special teams plays or turnovers), I’m thinking they keep the game close enough so they aren’t limited to 15 rushes like they were versus the Chargers last week. The Raiders, on rare occasion, have also been known to throw a nice play action pass for good yards, and they should have numerous opportunities to do so in this game. Versus an injury plagued defense that will be looking to stop the run first, the Raiders really, really need to take advantage with the passing game to keep the Patriots’ defense honest. As bad as the Raiders’ passing game has been, I think they’ll be able to do enough in this game.

Darren McFadden is mostly back from injury, but he had only one carry for no gain last week. So is he really healed up? I don’t know. Left tackle lame Kwame Harris has finally been benched, and Mario Henderson will get the start again, and the offense has been better with Mario. The Raiders’ wide receiving corps has had injuries of their own this season. Rumor has it the Raiders will use a two tight end set more this week for both running and passing plays. JaMarcus Russell will be sporting a gimpy ankle this week, and his mobility at times is a more dangerous weapon than his arm. The Patriots may dial up a little more pressure early and test that ankle to see how it’s holding up.

To conclude: The Patriots are on the West coast for a second consecutive week, late in the season when fatigue begins to be a factor, with a defense comprised of many aging and/ or reactivated veterans. Current Patriots/ex Raiders Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan will have a little extra motivation this game – it remains to be seen if the Raiders’ defense will be a little extra motivated to shut them down. I think they will be motivated – not just to shut down the former players, but the entire Patriots’ team, because they are the Patriots, after all, and they and their hated coach have had large targets on their backs for many years running now. I think a few big run and pass plays propel the home team to victory. Once we’re sitting comfortably again on he Patriots’ Fade Train counting our cash we’ll laugh at how the poor conditions of the Oakland station didn’t turn out to be so bad after all.

Final Score Prediction: Patriots 20 – Raiders 21

SAINTS @ BEARS Week #15

If there is one person Drew Brees perpetually has a step on in football, it’s Kyle Orton. Orton followed in Brees’ footsteps to Purdue University and then to the NFL, but he’s never been able to put up passing numbers anywhere near those of Brees. Luckily for Orton, he hasn’t had to carry the team on his shoulders as the Bears have equaled the Saints’ 7-6 record with a better defense.

One might think that the Bears have the vastly superior run game, but the gap in quality is pretty close right now with both squads well below average. Not only that, both teams have had a soft run-defense schedule. The Bears have had the 23rd ranked toughest run defense schedule, while the Saints have had the 31st, one shy of the easiest schedule. Not so good for either team, with the small nod going to the Bears as teams have been able to key on their run game more than anyone dares to do versus the Saints’ passing offense. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combined for 182 rushing yards last week versus an admittedly poor Falcons’ run defense. Nobody puts 8 men in the box versus the Saints unless it’s a down & very short distance situation, and the Saints are taking advantage by running the ball more and more. Yes, Reggie Bush is back, which means Deuce McCallister is relegated to nothing more than an occasional 3rd and inches play, lol.

The Bears’ run defense won’t be getting any extra help this game, so expect the Saints to utilize a balanced offense that will keep the Bears’ defense on it’s heels all game, as they need the Bears to respect the run enough to maximize their success with the play action pass. The Bears’ will be relying on their front four to get pressure on Drew Brees, so don’t expect a lot of blitzes from them as they’re well aware that Brees is possibly the best quarterback in the league at getting rid of the ball when facing pressure. If their defensive line doesn’t get to Brees they’ll just be crossing their fingers and hoping that they have enough passing lanes clogged with defenders to break up passes or get interceptions, as Brees isn’t gun shy and will almost always throw the ball instead of taking a sack, and the Bears have been better at getting interceptions than sacking quarterbacks this year. The Bears’ defense has good reason to be very nervous in this game, as they’re just not solid enough defending the pass to get too creative.

The Bears have a below average 25th ranked run offense, and their pass offense is slightly worse at 26th. This is a good match up for the Saints’ defense. They got off to a poor start this season and have had to deal with a few injuries, but they’re back to near 100% up front and it’s showing up in their performances. In 6 of their last 9 games the Saints’ defense has held opponent’s to under 4 yards per carry, and some of those came versus some very good run teams – the Vikings, the Panthers, and the Falcons twice, all top 10 run offenses, and versus the Packers (15th) and Raiders (17th). The Bears are far below these teams.

Can Kyle Orton and the passing game compensate for the average at best run day the Bears can expect to have? Once again, the trends indicate that no, they will not. The Saints’ pass defense also struggled early in the season but has shown a lot of improvement as the defense has gelled as a complete unit. In precisely half of their last 8 games has a team thrown for more than 5.4 yards per pass versus the Saints – twice by the Falcons (ranked 5th), once by the Chargers (ranked 2nd), and once by the Panthers (ranked 8th), so only very good passing offenses are having success versus the Saints, and those were all games in which the Saints keyed on the opponent’s run offenses with pretty good success.

While the Saints’ defense has been improving, the same can’t be said for the Bears’ offense. Since week 3 they’ve only had two games in which they’ve gone above the opponent’s average allowed yards per run, once versus the abysmal Rams, and two weeks ago versus a good Vikings’ run defense, but they were playing from a double-digit deficit for the entire second half. Not since week #7 have they thrown for more yards per pass than an opponent usually allows, a very poor span of 6 consecutive games, 5 of which saw them throw for less than 5 yards per pass attempt.

In spite of their equal 7-6 records, these are really teams moving in opposite directions right now. Speaking of week #7, that was the last time the Bears beat a team with a winning record, the Vikings. Over the last 6 games the Bears have been outscored by more than 3 points per game, while the Saints have outscored their opponent’s by 4, and with a tougher schedule to boot.

Clearly, the wrong team is favored in this game and the cold weather alone won’t be enough to slow down and stop the Saints from winning a key game in the wildcard race. Drew Brees works harder than any other quarterback in the league in preparing for each game, and on a short week that may be an even bigger advantage he has versus Kyle Orton, who will once again be following in Drew’s wake after this game.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 24 – Bears 20

Week #15 Lines & Values

***UPDATED 12/12/08 9:10 PM EST***




Slim pickens this week. I'll be adding a play on JAC at some point. I was waiting on the ATL/TB O/U, and I unfortunately missed it dropping off of 45, as I'd like to take the Under in that one. If you see a 45, take the Under for 1 Unit. It may rebound by game time.

Week #15 Plays

***UPDATED 12/12/08 9:13 PM EST***

Week #15 Plays

An ugly Sunday Nighter leaves us at +3 Units for the week.

SUNDAY NIGHT PLAYS

1 UNIT: WAS +7 (-125 5DIMES)

2 UNITS: OVER 35

1 UNIT: WAS TEAM TOTAL OVER

2/3 UNIT: WAS +3 1ST HALF

***HALFTIME***

1 UNIT: WAS +0.5 (-110 5DIMES)



2 Units:

SD -4
PIT/BAL OVER 33
NO/CHI UNDER 46 (-110 5DIMES) Bitter cold low teens evening game with a little snow and 10+mph winds forecast -- this number is 45 at most shops and should come down some.
SAINTS +3 (-115)
TEN -3 (-120)
OAK +7.5


1.5 Units:

1 Unit:

TB +15 (WEEK 14 MNF)/NO +14.5/SF +19/SD +8 12-POINT MONSTER TEASER (EV 5DIMES)
PIT +8/WAS -1 TEASER
TEN/HOU UNDER 45
CLE +14
CLE/PHI OVER 38

2/3 Unit:

1/2 Unit:

Week #15 Lines & Values

Plays will be in another post online here only once the lines come out shortly.

Things Were Going Along Swimmingly...

...until the last 7 minutes of the PIT/DAL game! For heck's sake, it always has to be the tv game that turns into a disaster, lol. We were up 8+ units looking to make it 10+ when Dallas had the 10 point lead midway through the 4th, and then...yeah. Still, a very good day leaves us at +6 units for the week.

HOTMAIL SAYS I CAN'T SEND ANY MORE EMAILS TODAY!

Everything else will be posted online today.

1/2 UNIT:

PIT TEAM TOTAL UNDER 10 2ND HALF (-105)
DAL ML 2ND HALF (+140)

Week #14 Plays

The only game we've been wrong on line movement so far this week was Seattle, and that was due to Matt Hasselbeck being suddenly announced as out yesterday. We didn't get the best juice with Dallas because of the announcement that Marion Barber didn't travel with the team. Eh, I still like both dogs to cover, it just would've been nice to get a better line or juice. No more travelling for the rest of the football season for me, so I'll be on top of these things.

Week #14 Lines & Values

***Updated line with Hasselbeck out for SEA/NE is SEA +3.1-O/U 42.5. All the plays on Seattle and the Over were made prior to the announcement yesterday, and I've been on the road since yesterday morning until a half an hour ago. The Seattle and Over plays will just have to ride it out as is -- I still like Seattle to cover.

Dogcentricity continues as I only have a couple of faves covering this week.

Week #14 Plays Hotmail not working Emergency Post

2 Units:

HOU +7 (-120 BOUGHT THE HOOK)
HOU/GB UNDER 48
JAC +7
JAC/CHI UNDER 41

1/2 unit:

HOU +6.5/UNDER 48 PARLAY
JAC +7/UNDER 41 PARLAY

The forecasts are almost identical for Green Bay and Chicago this week -- 17 degree highs, low chance of precip at 10%, and medium winds in the 11-14 mph range. That's very cold -- it's harder to catch footballs when it gets that cold, so the running games will be emphasized. Green Bay has no advantage in the running game match up and actually is at a disadvantage in the passing game match up with the regression of their pass defense (due in some part to injuries they still have). Chicago does have small advantages in the run and pass match ups, but not enough to warrant being a 7 point favorite in very cold, windy weather (the wind forecast is higher in Chicago than GB). I guess there's the concern that JAC has packed it in this year, but I really don't think that happens with most teams until the last week or until the 4th quarter of a game they're losing badly (like last night's game), and then it's only the defense that tends to go limp, not the offense.

Both HOU and JAC are warm weather teams, but they will also be starting quarterbacks with more NFL experience than either the Packers or Chicago, so I don't think the weather will be much of an advantage for the home teams.

2 Units on these plays as at worst I expect some middling opportunities on the totals, though I'll probably let them ride if the forecasts stay the same.

Week #13 Lines & Values

Jeff Saturday will be out for the Colts, which means I'll be making a play on the home Brownies at some point. Shaun Rogers' presence in the middle will be even bigger versus a back up center. Brady Quinn will be out, which is neither here nor there, as far as I'm concerned, with Derek Anderson getting his starting job back.

All injury and weather updates have been applied to the lines -- next update will be late Friday evening/early Saturday morning.

49ers @ Bills

The Bills broke a 4-game slide with a victory over the Chiefs last week – a reason for renewed hope? Yes and no. The return of Josh Reed at WR helped Trent Edwards to his career best passing day, but then again, it was against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Still, Trent Edwards was happy to take something positive away from a game for once, regardless of how it came. Their running game was so-so, with Marshawn Lynch averaging just under 4 yards per carry versus an extremely poor run defense.

Defensively, the only thing they did right was get 5 turnovers. They gave up 462 yards to a Chiefs’ offense that only learned how to do anything successfully a mere month ago. Without those turnovers the Bills are probable losers as they were outgained by the Chiefs. It was a good day for rookie CB Leodis McKelvin who had to fill in for the injured Jabari Greer. Coach Jauron has been hesitant to start McKelvin before, but had little choice here, and McKelvin had two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown. McKelvin also had a kickoff return for a touchdown 2 weeks ago versus Cleveland. Leodis was the 11th overall pick out of Troy last year. I wonder if anyone has ever been drafted in the top 10 out of Troy? The Bills run defense gave up 159 yards on only 13 carries as Larry Johnson busted off a 63 yarder.

The Bills have given up an average of 157 yards rushing over their last 3 games, all to teams that are pretty good at running the ball. The 49ers are only ranked a little lower in rush offense than the Bills’ past 3 opponents, in small part due to the horrendous day the 49ers had running the ball versus Dallas last week. The 49ers should rebound on the ground and also go for over a hundred yards rushing versus the Bills. As the Bills top defensive priority will be stopping Frank Gore, 49er QB Shaun Hill should find himself with little pressure in the pocket except for on obvious passing downs, which is when the Bills like to stand up out of their stance and wave their arms about crazily in an effort to intimidate opposing offenses. Mostly it’s just for show, though, as the Bills are 29th in the league in sacks per pass plays defensed, and 19th in pass defense. Shaun Hill is a pretty cool cat that can hang in the pocket and deliver the ball anyway.

49ers’ CB Nate Clements had a horrible day defensively guarding Terrell Owens last week. Clements, a high-priced CB, is supposed to be able to hold his own versus any top receiver, but got burned on 3 big plays where the play call didn’t have him jamming Terrell at the line of scrimmage. Clements has typically been a guy that likes to play off the receiver and bait the quarterback into throwing his way. In Buffalo he did that a lot simply because he was playing in a weak secondary where he felt more harm would be done if he guarded his man tightly, forcing the QB to throw against weaker parts of the secondary. I don’t know if it’s the luck of the bounce or what, but the 49ers have been one of the worst teams in the league this year at getting interceptions. I have a feeling they’ll get one or two off of Edwards this week, though. Edwards didn’t throw any picks after throwing 3 in the first half versus Cleveland the week before. He is often guilty of staring down his receivers, which could easily lead to some picks versus experienced route-hopping CBs Clements and Harris. Edwards figures to be in numerous obvious passing downs this game as the 49ers’ 8th ranked run defense should keep the Bills’ 27th ranked run offense in check on many plays.

In summary, the 49ers, because of the big edge they have in the running game, will find the passing lanes and pass rush far more open than the Bills will, propelling them to a road victory versus a Bills team primed to continue it’s backsliding after a one week respite versus the Chiefs.

Final Score Prediction: 49ers 23 – Bills 21

Week #13 Plays

2 Units:

SF +7 (-120 BOUGHT THE HOOK)
IND/CLE UNDER 46
ARI/PHI UNDER 47 (-120 BOUGHT THE HOOK)

1 Unit:

OAK -3
PIT +1.5
DET +11
SEA/DAL UNDER 47
CIN +7 (-120 BOUGHT THE HOOK)

2/3 Unit:

DET/TEN UNDER 44
PIT/NE OVER 40
KC/OAK OVER 40.5
DEN +7.5
SEA +13
BAL/CIN UNDER 36.5

Didn't have to buy the hooks on SF & CIN, as it turns out, though we've got some good savings on several of the totals already.

MNF Week #12

New Orleans not all comfortable with their field goal kicking, especially from long distance, of course. Expect them to go for it in situations where Green Bay will kick FGs with Mason Crosby.

Green Bay more likely to get a long touchdown versus the Saints' weaker secondary. Grant or Jackson more capable of a long touchdown play than McCallister. Packers more likely to get a special teams touchdown -- Reggie Bush still out for the Saints.

7 or 8 punts tops this game.

True line for "1st turnover an INT" should be closer to -200.

Saints run defense stronger than pass defense, and the Packers use RB Brandon Jackson more for passing to. Packers may get away from the run some in the 2nd half if behind. I like Ryan Grant to go Under.

Packers will spread the ball around on offense, still don't have all of their WRs healthy. Jordy Nelson Over 2.

Saints will want to run as long as it's mostly successful, as the Packers' run defense is weak, especially compared to their pass defense. The Saints have 3 TE who catch the ball well, so I like J. Shockey Under. The Packers only allow 176 passing yards per game, so I like Drew Brees to go Under the receptions and pass yards. 5Dimes has much better lines on the Drew Brees props as of 15 minutes ago.

And as for regular bets, we had the Under 53.5 for 2 Units, and I added the Saints ML -106 a little while ago for 1 Unit.

Week #13 Lines & Values

No early totals available yet, so everything is 41.

Week #12 Halftime Plays

MNF:

1 UNIT:

SAINTS PICK (-106)
SAINTS TEAM TOTAL OVER 13.5 (-140)

2 Giant kick returns give them the halftime lead. I'm not sure why Santana Moss wasn't ejected from the game. He threw a punch right to Wilson's head standing right in front of the ref.

Afternoon Games:

1/2 Unit: OAK +7 (EV Matchbook)
1/2 Unit: ATL +3 (-110 Bookmaker)
2/3 Unit: NYG/ARI UNDER 24 (-105 5DIMES)

1 Unit:

MIN/JAC UNDER 21
TB -3.5 (EV MATCHBOOK)


2/3 Unit:

DAL -3 (-110 MATCHBOOK) Betting teams with a big lead at half is always dicey, but going to make the play here. Dallas starts the 2nd half with the ball.
KC -1 (+104 MATCHBOOK)
KC/BUF OVER 22.5 (+107 MATCHBOOK)
MIA/NE OVER 21
CHI/STL UNDER 21 (-120 BOOKMAKER)
NYJ +3.5 (-115)
TB/DET UNDER 21 (-113 MATCHBOOK)


1/2 Unit:

PHI/BAL UNDER 17 (EV 5DIMES)
PHI PICK (-105 5DIMES)
HOU +3 (-120)

Eagles @ Ravens Week #12

The Eagles have been the laughing stock of the NFL this week. Not only did they barely hang on to a tie versus the Bengals, a team they should have shredded, but QB Donovan McNabb admitted to not understanding the overtime rule as implemented during the regular season. For the humiliation suffered on both accounts you have to figure the Eagles to be coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder.

The Ravens’ defense likes to present itself as big, bad and scary, but last week the Giants took a giant sized Edgar Allen Poe right on their heads, rushing for over 200 yards. The week before that the Texans ran the ball for a spiffy 4.7 yards per carry against them. Sure, the Ravens still have the 4th highest rated run defense by my numbers, but they’re no impregnable fortress, as the last two weeks have shown. Against the pass I have the Ravens’ defense ranked 11th, but that’s mostly on the back of some really good defensive games early in the season. In their last 6 games, they’ve only held one team to under 6 yards per pass attempt, and that team was the dreadful Raiders. As a matter of fact, the Ravens have given up 6.8 yards per attempt on average for their last 6 games.

The Ravens’ backsliding defense now hosts an unfavorable match up with the Eagles’ offense. The Eagles have been below average running the ball all year, but have an offense that doesn’t need to run it much to win. The Eagles in their last two games have faced a pass defense ranked better than the Ravens, the Giants, and one that’s only slightly worse, the Bengals, who’ve played equally well versus the pass over their last 6 games by comparison. I mention these last two opponents because the Eagles underperformed throwing the ball versus these two teams, averaging 5.45 yards per pass. In their four games prior to that they’d averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt. At worst, the Eagles should get near 6 yards per pass attempt, and I project them to do much better than that at 6.9 yards per pass attempt as the Ravens’ secondary has been getting progressively more injured over the course of the season, while the Eagles’ offense has been getting healthier (with the exception of Pro Bowl guard Shaun Andrews who has been out for quite a few weeks now).

The Eagles should have their fair share of offensive success with the pass and score some points. Will the Ravens be able to match their success offensively? The answer appears to be no, as the Ravens lack the majestic presence in the sky to match the Eagles. Joe Flacco is, by all measures, a success story this year, but you need to look at his individual performances to see the real picture here, and the picture is this: Flacco can pass on poor pass defenses, but not on good ones. Okay, it’s a pretty simple picture – one that a slow kindergartner could have sketched in a few minutes, but it’s the truth. Flacco has yet to throw for over 6 yards per pass attempt versus an above average pass defense this year. Not only do the Eagles have the 9th ranked pass defense, they’re number one at sacking opposing quarterbacks, and Flacco has been known to take his share of sacks. Heck, even the Browns sacked him twice, and they don’t sack anybody. The Texans, a below average pass rushing team, dropped him 3 times two games ago. The Giants only got him once last game, but Flacco threw 2 interceptions, so any game planning that involved taking less sacks may have directly translated into throwing more interceptions. The Ravens will likely be without starting left tackle Jared Gaither this week, and may slide right tackle Adam Terry over to take his place. Offensive line shuffling is rarely a good thing, even less so versus a team that brings the kind of pressure the Eagles do.

Can the Ravens pick up the slack by running the ball? Not likely. The Eagles’ run defense seems to have a threshold that causes opponent’s run offenses to slide pretty sharply to one side or the other. Most good running teams have gained about 5 yards per carry versus them, while average to poor running teams only go for about 2.8. Even a normally good running team like the Falcons only gained 3.2 yards per carry on them. The Ravens are just average running the ball, and the Eagles will be defending the run first as long as the game is within reach for either side, so except the Ravens’ yards per carry to be at the lower end of the threshold.

Ravens’ coach John Harbaugh spent 10 years as a coach with the Eagles prior to taking the head coaching position this year. Will familiarity be an advantage for him and his team? Maybe a little, but not enough to alter the spread for the game (unless they prove otherwise, lol).

In summary, the Ravens and rookie Joe Flacco will have a hard time gaining yards and points versus the Eagles’ stingy defense – a tricky blitzing defense known to give fits to inexperienced quarterbacks. The Eagles’ passing game should have enough success to win the game even if the running game gets shelved somewhere along the way.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – Ravens 17

Bills @ Chiefs, Week #12

Week #12 finds the Bills, who started the season 5-1, at 5-5, which the simple math will tell you is a 4 game losing streak, including one loss a piece to each of their divisional foes. A real cause for concern has been the steadily declining play of QB Trent Edwards, who instead of looking like a Stanford graduate looks more like someone cramming for his GED in between offensive series. Last Monday night versus the Browns he seemed completely unsure of where and when to throw the ball even with the 4-alligator pass rush count the Browns were giving him. 2 of the 3 interceptions he threw on his first 6 pass attempts were clearly his fault. Still, the Bills had a chance to win the game with a makeable field goal at the end (wide right!) because the Browns have continued under Brady Quinn to be goal line teases, only 25th best at converting in the red zone.

This week the Bills are on the road at Kansas City. As bad as the Kansas City defense has been, it’s really not much worse than the Browns at this juncture, so there’s little reason to be optimistic that the Bills’ offense will suddenly return to early season form even though facing one of the worst defenses in the league. They had 20 points scored on offense versus the Browns and should get very near the same amount this week. In their favor is the fact that the Chiefs’ special teams coverage hasn’t been special so there’s a chance of a kick return score just like they had versus the Browns.

The most notable absences in the Chiefs’ defensive starting line up will be linebackers Donnie Edwards and Pat Thomas. The Bills’ defensive injuries include safety Donte Whitner (out) and safety Bryan Scott (questionable) which means there’s a 50% chance that the Bills will have 2 second stringers starting at safety this game. Their best (and looking like only at this point) pass rusher, Aaron Schobel, will be out again as well.

Offensively, the Bills will more than likely get starting WR Josh Reed back. If he’s near 100% I guess we’ll find out how much better the Buffalo passing game is with him back in the line up, as Hardy was ineffectual in replacing him and was benched in favor of Steve Johnson who played solidly with 3 receptions last game. #1 Receiver Lee Evans didn’t have a single catch on Monday night. Injuries along the offensive line have been doing no favors to the Bills as well, but those ailments seem to be clearing up. Honestly, this game is shaping up to be the litmus test as to whether Trent Edwards continues as the Bills’ QB of the future, because the grumbling in Buffalo is getting louder every week. If Edwards can’t get it done with his offense healthy versus a bottom-dwelling defense I don’t see how a full-blown QB controversy will not exist with this team once again.

The Chiefs, well aware that they have a largely non-existent pass rush with only 6 sacks on the year will do the same thing defensively that the Browns did -- rush 3 or 4 players while disguising coverages and hope Trent Edwards continues to make mistakes. The Chiefs, in spite of their poor record, have been really good at getting turnovers this year.

Offensively, the momentum the Chiefs have been building since Tyler Thigpen became the default QB starter and the spread offense he’s comfortable with running should continue in this game. In the spread with 2 tight ends lined up as receivers they’ve still been able to run quite a bit and their run game has improved dramatically facing defensive fronts forced to stretch themselves thinner from sideline to sideline. 3 of these 4 games have been without Larry “The Loogie” Johnson, as well. He returned last week and the Chiefs had another solid running game versus the Saints. The Chiefs’ passing game did have its’ worst outing in 4 weeks last game, but they should bounce back nicely this week versus an average Buffalo pass defense. WR Mark Bradley is listed as “?” though, for what it’s worth. Offensively, the Chiefs are playing better than the Bills in both facets right now, and if you can say that one team of two who have both lost their last 4 games has any kind of momentum, it’s the Chiefs.

The Bills are at a disadvantage coming in on a short week of rest, preparation and travel to face an offense unlike anything else they’ve seen this year. If the Chiefs can limit the Bills to good, but not multiple great kick returns Sunday (which won’t be easy, truthfully) I like their new found balanced offensive success to propel them to a home victory.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 21 – Chiefs 23

Texans @ Browns Week #12

“Defenseless” – The Week 12 Movie Starring the Texans and Browns

When the Browns’ 25th ranked rush defense is the highest ranking group of the Browns’ and Texans’ combined rush and pass defenses, you know you’re not going to sit down to a game of field position in Cleveland come Sunday. The Browns’ 29th ranked pass defense, and the Texans’ 26th ranked run defense and 27th ranked pass defense all at least share the honor of not being amongst the 3 lowest rated groups in the league. Both teams are known for poor tackling. If football were fishing these two teams would return home after 30 minutes of unsuccessfully trying to open the tackle box, without a single cast into the water.

Having quickly established that defense will not be at a premium, which offense will best capitalize on the capitulating defenses? Curtly, the Texans. Both teams have excellent run offenses this year, the Texans ranked 5th and the Browns 4th. Both teams are starting quarterbacks who were not the starters at the beginning of the year. The Texans, because of injury. The Browns, because of “What the Hell, we suck this year so we might as well see what Brady Quinn can do.” Both replacements have been pretty good so far, though Sage Rosenfels has been far more careless with the ball, though he does throw for a much higher yards per pass. The Texans throw (by my rescored stats) for 7.3 yards per pass, while the Browns throw for 5.8. That’s a pretty significant advantage, and one I’ll bet on.

Not only do the Texans have the advantage in the passing game, they should have the advantage in the running game for a couple of reason. One, Jerome Harrison, the quick back who’s had some big runs for the Browns this season, including a 72 yarder for a touchdown versus the Bills last week, is freshly injured and is looking doubtful for this week. That takes away the one two punch the Browns have utilized successfully this year with Jamal Lewis. The Texans have developed their own successfully running back combo with the speedy rookie Steve Slaton and the “I can’t believe he’s not still injured” short yardage back Ahman Green. The Texans rested Slaton a couple of weeks ago versus the Ravens as the rookie was starting to tire out some, and he came back fresh with a big game versus the Colts last week, getting 150+ on the ground.

With a better backfield, more experienced quarterback (keep the turnovers down please, Sage) and equally poor defenses, I like the Texans to get their first road victory of the season this week. On a side note, the Texans do have the worst red zone defense in the league, but Quinn is yet to show a consistent ability to crack the goal line when near it, as the compressed field is generally the toughest place for inexperienced quarterbacks to play well. The Texans are more successful than the Browns in the red zone, so it should balance out pretty evenly.

In spite of the poor defenses and the title of this write up, I don’t like this game to go Over 50 points as both teams figure to run quite a bit. It only takes a few clock-grinding drives ending in short field goals to keep a game under 50 barring multiple large special teams or defensive plays/scores. That being said, I sure as shinola wouldn’t take the Under either, as this game is as likely as any to go for 50 or 60 points this week.

Final Score Prediction: Texans 24 – Browns 23

Thursday Night Football Week #12

Well, TJ Housh going catchless in the second half made both the plays on him a loser -- Hines Ward beat him in yards with only one catch on the night, lol. On the plus side, we got VERY fortunate with the interception at the end of the game, as it gave us the baby middle on the total, the PIT -9.5 win, and the "Last play a QB kneel" play.

+3.43 Units to start the week, very nice.



Had a bad game of props last Monday as the bad weather never materialized. These plays are not so dependant on bad weather, though a few of them will be helped if it turns nasty.

Feeling pretty comfortable with the PIT -9.5 (-120) play. Going to hope for a 24-12 finish to middle the totals, with 23 of the points coming in the first half, lol.

Week #12 Bengals @ Steelers

Bengals @ Steelers

Let me start this by saying that I think the zebras (If they’re to be nicknamed after animals, maybe we should start calling them dodos instead? Honestly, I look forward to the day when refs are no longer needed in any sport, as microchip, laser and video technology should remove the human-error officiating element from sporting events in the glorious future I envision!) will have a great enthusiasm for favoring Pittsburgh with their calls. After last Sunday’s debacle they’d like to leave town safely instead of finding themselves at the bottom of any one of three conveniently located rivers. I personally don’t want to re-regrade a losing bet on Pittsburgh again. Oh the joy of getting the miracle cover (though it should have been an easy cover as Pittsburgh dominated offensively but couldn’t score touchdowns), only to come back minutes later and find a touchdown taken off the board! So yeah, I don’t think we’ll see a 13-1 penalty calls against Pittsburgh disparity this week, unless, of course, they earn them.

I’m confident the Bengals will earn more than one flag, and I’m almost certain they’ll be called for offensive holding at least 2-3 times in this game. The Bengals have obviously not had much to be positive about this season, getting off to an 0-3 start versus very good teams while Carson Palmer was QB, and then going 1-5-1 after Fitzpatrick replaced him. Fitzpatrick has shown some improvement, earning a passer rating a little shy of 90 over his last two games. One thing the Bengals were grateful for, up until last week, was the health of their offensive line. Heading into week #11, the Bengals had started the same 5 on the offensive line all season. Statistically, offensive line continuity is a big plus for any team. Now the Bengals don’t even have that going for them, as both left tackle Levi Jones and left guard Andrew Whitworth were injured last week and are looking doubtful for Thursday. That means just promoted from the practice squad Nate Livings could start at left guard and rookie Anthony Collins could start at left tackle. Ummm, yeahhhh, it’s not looking good for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blindside versus the best and #1 most sack-happy defense in the league. Speaking of technology, I think Ryan’s looking into installing a surveillance camera on the left side of his helmet today. Plus there’s the added stress of it being a road game for him under the spotlights of a nationally televised game. So yes, I foresee an offensive holding or three in this game for the Bengals.

So, offensively it looks like the Bengals will be hard pressed to get the 13.8 points per game they’ve been averaging this year. Still, they’ve got that talented trio of receivers and it only takes a few big plays in a game to get into scoring range a few times, so my numbers have them getting 13 points in this game in spite of the injuries to their offensive line.

The Steelers, for their part, are highly motivated to find the endzone multiple times this week, as they’re currently experiencing a touchdown drought of over 6 quarters in length. The good news is that it hasn’t been due to a lack of yards, so that variance should flatten out with them scoring a minimum of three touchdowns in this game barring a serious downgrade in the weather forecast. They’ll almost certainly have lots of opportunities to do so, as they should fine themselves with good field position to begin many drives. The Bengals should have numerous punts from deep in their own territory which should set the Steelers up near mid-field. The Steelers should have offensive success even when facing a long field ahead of them. In the first match up of these two teams in week #7 the Steelers were without RB Willie Parker. He and the Steelers’ run game got off to a slow start this season in part due to injuries along the offensive line. Those offensive line injuries still exist, but the team is adapting and improving the run since Parker’s return. The Bengals have had a surprisingly decent defense this year, but they’ve been getting progressively more injured since the week #7 game, a game which saw the Steelers reel off a bunch of 4th quarter points en route to a 35-10 victory.

In summary, the Steelers’ offense should be better and the Bengals’ defense worse since their earlier contest, and it’s a home game for Pittsburgh. Of all the games on the board this week, this one has the most potential to get out of hand and turn into a blowout. Not only should Pittsburgh have numerous short fields to work with, it’s highly likely they’ll have at least one extremely short field after a Fitzpatrick fumble or interception, which may be returned for a touchdown, scoring points without even putting the offense on the field. With the low total of 34, it won’t be hard to get this one Over after a couple of big plays in spite of the near-freezing (30% chance snow, 10-15 mph winds) weather.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 13 – Steelers 24

Week #12 Lines & Values

Well, tonight I finally did it -- I tamed the big favorite lines once and for all. As many of you know, this year I implemented many new changes and updates to my extremely (take my word for it) complicated spreadsheet handicapping setup. One problem I'd been having this year was that I almost always seemed to have the big favorites covering. Now statistically they should have been covering at just a little less than 50%, though this year it has been more like 10%, if that! The problem is not that they haven't been covering, it's that (like I said) I was almost always favoring them. I've been comparing the total number of points assigned to the favorites by my lines versus the actual lines and I've been running at a pretty good clip over the actual amount, hence the need to look at some of the things I've implemented this year, which I did, which caused me to change things, which I did, and now the lines overall slightly favor the dogs, which is typically correct. My totals have been really good this year, they've changed some as well now as a result, and are also much tighter to the actual lines.

Of course, you're wondering how this has affected this week's plays. Good news, we're still on the right side of the lines on 11 of the 14 posted plays, it's just that I'm not showing as much value as I was before. Two of the plays I like the other way now, but that's largely due to line movements which we got good value on, which means we can try to middle these two plays now. The first of these is the total on the Thursday night game between PIT/CIN. My new line is 37.7. I'll be monitoring that line, as soon as it shows any sign of rising off of 34 I'll hit the Over, setting up for a nice middle. The other is the HOU/CLE Over 48.5 we have. My new line is 48.1, very near the opening line. The line is sitting on 50.5 and may rise as the weather doesn't look to be an issue any more come Sunday in Cleveland. I'll also be monitoring that line and if it looks to be coming down I'll play the Under 50.5 giving us a chance to middle on 49 & 50. The only recommended play that I'd pass on now is Green Bay, as I have the Saints barely covering now, so we're not far wrong.

We've been on a tremendous run in spite of the large favorites not covering, and I think this big update will work to our advantage by making us a little more selective especially in terms of those large favorites, lol. Ever since I started doing the Quality Control tables a few weeks ago it's really jumped out at me just how badly you have to dominate a team to cover a double digit spread, so I definitely feel that these lines are more accurate.

This is full disclosure where I simply could have waited until next week to slip in the big changes unannounced. That's not how I am, honesty is essential in this business and I've always strived to be that with what I've been doing in my handicapping. Considering that all of you who aren't new to the service this week are many $$$ ahead, I somehow think you'll be fine with the changes and look forward to seeing how the tighter lines perform as we head down the regular season stretch and into the playoffs.

New lines above, old lines below.

***UPDATED 11/22 11:12 PM EST***



The orange shaded lines were the lines available when the plays were recommended. I haven't moved them as they're the lines I'm grading the quality control tables against.





Updated 11/19/2008 2:26am EST, injuries and weather included.

Week #12 Plays

2 Units:

HOU +3 (-105)
HOU/CLE OVER 48.5
WAS/SEA UNDER 42
DAL/SF UNDER 48
TB -9
MIN +1.5
GB/NO UNDER 53.5
DEN/OAK UNDER 43.5

1 Unit:

PIT/CIN OVER 17 1ST HALF
KC +3 (+101)
TB/DET OVER 41
STL +8.5
ARI +3 (+101 MATCHBOOK)
ARI/NYG UNDER 49
CAR +1 (EV MATCHBOOK)
GB +2.5 (+104 MATCHBOOK)
PHI +1.5
PIT -9.5 (-120 BOUGHT THE HOOK)
PIT/CIN UNDER 37 (-120 BOUGHT THE HOOK)
NYJ/TEN UNDER 41
MIN/JAC OVER 40
MIN +7.5/CAR +7 TEASER

2/3 Unit:

MNF Week #11

Man, remind me to never play any props when these two teams get together! I've had great nights on props this year with the two exceptions of games where the weather was supposed to be bad but then didn't end up being bad. C'est la vie. Still turned a small profit on the game despite dropping 3.5 units on the props!

HALFTIME PLAYS:

2/3 UNIT:

CLE +4.5 (-105)
UNDER 21 (-120)
CLE +0.5 3RD Q. (-130)

Wait a second, I thought the Browns would have the wind in the 3rd Q.?

Well, the lack of snow and wind has lent itself to killing some props, but at least we got the 1st Q., 1st H. CLE and 1st H. Over plays to keep us near even. Oh yeah, btw, it's Dawson kicking for CLE, not Stover, who kicks for BAL, lol.



Also added for a 1/2 Unit: CLE +0.5 1st Q (-125 5Dimes)
Have active CLE +4.5 for the game and +3 for the first half for 2/3 Unit each.

***WEATHER LOOKING NOT BAD AT ALL BEFORE KICKOFF --UGH!!!***

1 UNIT: OVER 21 1ST HALF (+113 MATCHBOOK)

Bad weather = less scoring = better chance of there not being 3 unanswered scores. Cold + snow + wind = greater chance of no score in last 2 minutes of 1st half & a greater chance of the first score being a touchdown as missed field goals are more likely. Cold + wet = greater chance of first turnover being a fumble. Bad weather = I don't know about Lindell, but Stover has been a good bad weather kicker over the years. Braylon Edwards = 1 reception in good weather versus Denver last week. Kellen Winslow = 10 receptions versus Denver last week -- poor weather means many short passes coming his way. Fred Jackson = 48 rushing and receiving yards average per game in good weather, so I don't mind paying the vig and taking my chances in poor weather.

The weather looks to be getting worse, so I wouldn't recommend playing the Over in the game unless things look okay before kickoff. If they do, I'd probably just play the 1st half Over and hope the weather holds for one half.

For those of you that have cashed in on any of the "First Team to Make 1st Down" bets of recent weeks (though they didn't all cash because of a bit of bad luck -- SF returning opening kickoff for a TD -- OMG) congratulatios, you're in the "I Beat a Broken Bet" club now, as 5Dimes is not even offering that play for tonight's game, lol. I like CLE 1st Q. and 1st half because the Bills always defer when they win the toss. The Browns have only won one toss and elected to receive, but in this weather they may elect to defer, so I probably would've passed on the play anyway.

This game can't help but remind of the game last year in Cleveland involving these two teams. The weather was horrible, a total blizzard. I loaded up on the "No - 3 unanswered scores" and "No score in last 2 minutes of first half" only to see Matt Stover kick an almost 50 yard FG at the end of the half in abysmal conditions to kill both plays in one fell swoop, as that made the score 8-0 Browns after a botched punt attempt by the Bills resulted in a safety earlier. Such bad luck in that first half as the final score ended up being 8-0 on the back of those 3 first half unanswered scores. I ended up being down 5 units or so that week, my worst week of last year. As many of you know, 5 units down has been the worst week this year as well -- but it was bookended by +25 and +22 (so far this week) weeks!

Week #11 2nd Half Plays

Well, almost zero luck on 2nd half plays this week, so it's a good thing we killed about everything else. Up 17.9 units by my calculations, so another huge week. I hope nobody minds so many big winning weeks this season, lol.

Too bad Seattle didn't convert their two-point conversion, that would've given me the big middle on the total in that game. That makes a string of 4 consecutive failed two-point conversions that would've helped win plays over the last 2 weeks. And too bad Pittsburgh had the touchdown called back for holding or the touchdown on the fumble at the end of the game. We'd have been up well over 20 units if Pittsburgh gets a touchdown one way or the other at the end there. While many of the big favorites weren't so good at covering (what's new there, lol?), at least they hung on to win, and Philly got the push, which means the ML parlay was a winner with a refigured payoff of +1.25. Some of those big favorites should have covered though. Both Miami and Philly murdered their opponents in total yards and yards per play.

Oh, and not losing a single total for the week is pretty cool, and I did get one middle on the NYG/BAL total. I was out of the house until close to gametime, so I hope maybe some of you got the middle as well, but it was a pretty late email. Tonight's Under 46 is one of the best plays we got down on this week, so Total perfection is looking well within reach right now.

1 Unit:

MIA -5.5
CHI/GB UNDER 21.5 (-115 5DIMES)

2/3 Unit:

TB -3 (-105)c=
CHI PICK (+103 MATCHBOOK)
CAR -7 (-115)

1/2 Unit:

DAL -3 (EV 5DIMES)
TEN -3 (+111 MATCHBOOK)
PIT -3 (-105 MATCHBOOK)
SF/STL OVER 19.5
SF PICK (-130, THOUGH -115 AVAILABLE AT MATCHBOOK)
ARI -2 (-105)
HOU +6.5 (-105 Bookmaker)
NYG -3 (+105)
CIN TEAM TOTAL UNDER 7 (-120)

Saints @ Chiefs

“It’s What’s Known as a Mismatch Part II”

Oh when the Saint go marching on the road this year, the marching has turned to martyrdom in every case. They did win in London, however, and rarely has a contingent of Catholic-named crusaders been so cordially courted on the Anglican Isle (I’m still waiting for the Steelers to play there so we can see side by side photos of the two Big Bens every half hour on the NFL network for an entire week). The last time the Saints ventured out of the bayou up into the Midwest was in week #3 versus the Broncos. A Martin Grammatical error cost them the game – anything less than 50 yards is a chip shot in Denver, so his 43 yard miss that would have given them a 1 point lead was inexcusable.

The Saint’s road woes are not attributable to a lack of offense, just a lack of turning those yards into points. Well, that and their defense, which has given up an average of 31.8 points on the road this year. Even in their one lone blowout road loss, 7-30 at Carolina, they still outgained the Panthers in total yards. Drew Brees and the Saints have the highest yards per pass average by my rescored stats this year, and they haven’t even played versus any of the 8 weakest secondaries in the league. That’s impressive. The Broncos are the weakest secondary they’ve played ranked 24th. The Chiefs are ranked 29th and have several injured defensive starters with questionable statuses coming into this game. Not only are the Chiefs the weakest secondary the Saints have faced, the Chiefs are dead last in the league in sack percentage per pass plays defensed, while the Saints are #1 in fewest sacks per passing plays allowed. It’s what’s known as a mismatch, part II.

Deuce McCallister isn’t going to return two punts for touchdowns in a game anytime soon, but he’s a better short yardage back than Reggie Bush, which is something any predominantly passing team needs to convert those short 3rd downs. Running back by committee is really all you need to have decent success versus the Chiefs’ run defense, which is ranked dead last in the league. The weather will be fairly mild by Kansas City mid-November standards, so nothing stands in the way of the Saints having a huge offensive game, except the turnovers and missed field goals that have plagued them in enemy territory. With average luck, it won’t be an issue.

The Chiefs’ offense has undergone a recent resurrection by putting last-man-standing QB Thigpen into a semi-spread offense with many shotgun snaps like the system he played in during his college years. They put up a very impressive amount of yards and points versus a tough Tampa Bay defense in their last home game two weeks ago. RB Larry Johnson returns to the field for the first time in about a month. Note to Saints’ defenders: make sure you settle for no less than a 15 yard penalty if he spits in your face. The Saints’ defense is very vulnerable to the long ball, so expect the Chiefs to attack deep as well – they had a WR option play that resulted in a 40+ yard td pass to no other than QB Thigpen versus Tampa. If the Chiefs fall behind as expected, the second half should be an entertaining air-fest that puts this game Over the total even if the first half scoring has lagged a little behind.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 34 – Chiefs 23

Cardinals @ Seahawks

“It’s What’s Known as a Mismatch”

Matt Hasselbeck has been cleared to play for the Seahawks this week. Whoopety-freakin’-do. He will still be throwing the ball to a below average receiving corps. They do get Deion Branch back who hopes to make it through an entire game this season after being out since the first. Their leading receiver as of late has been TE John Carlson, who’s been demonstrating as of late an equally good ability with both catching and dropping balls. Fullback Leonard Weaver will be out again, the one man wrecking crew who beat the 49ers by himself. This Seahawks’ offense is a few good hits away from being the same offense that couldn’t score in the final 3 and 3/4ths quarters of the game versus Philly a couple of weeks ago. The Cardinals are prone to late hits and may lay one on Hasselbeck or Branch just to put them out of the game. Not that I would condone such a thing.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote how teams were loading up to stop the Seattle run after Hasselbeck was injured. Coach Holmgren said as much last week. It will be interesting to see how much respect the Arizona defense will pay to Hasselbeck’s return. I think they’ll still focus on the run until Hasselbeck proves he’s rust-free in this game. Matt did only have a 57.7 passer rating before getting his disc bulged. He has to overcome an injury and his poor play to have a chance of winning this game, which is a pretty tall order. The Cardinals have a fairly solid defense front to back, and have been better at stopping the run than the pass this year (and their pass defense numbers really suffered in that one game versus the Jets when they were missing SS Adrian Wilson). Still, the 49ers were able to move the ball on them last week, so they won’t need Tom Cruise peeling a Mission Impossible mask from his face to have some offensive success.

Where the Seahawks will lose this game, however, is defensively. It’s no secret that the Cardinals’ high-flying passing game has been blessed by no less than the Man Upstairs himself, who surely takes exception to the lack of public nudity laws in Seattle and will continue to smite the Seahawks as a result. Nobody likes to see naked people riding bicycles. The Seahawks’ secondary is like a book of matches, slight of stature just waiting to get burned. Without a pass rush since Patrick Kerney was lost to injury, I’m not sure the Seahawks will have any defensive solutions other than flat out blitzes over and over hoping for the occasional sack, pick, or 3 and out. With time, Kurt Warner could complete passes with the opponent’s entire roster milling about in the secondary. 45% of his career starts have gone for 300+ passing yards? That’s insanely good. As are Fitzgerald, Boldin & Breaston. The Cardinals have the 3rd best yards per pass by my rescored rankings, while the Seahawks have the 8th worst pass defense. It’s what’s known as a mismatch. Hightower has given the Cardinals a spark in the running game this year as well. The forecast has cleared up so weather shouldn’t be an issue at all in Seattle on Sunday. Somebody upstairs is making sure of that.

Speaking of all out blitzes, it was fun to watch the Cardinals line up and shoot the A gap versus the 49ers last Monday. I hope they do some of the same to the Seahawks this week – but I also hope they keep from dangling their numerous appendages over the line of scrimmage this time, as I don’t think the old ticker can stand seeing multiple interceptions called back again.

Cardinals -2.5 was the opening line and 2 units on the Cards was the recommended play, which is now sitting pretty with the line at -3 with varying degrees of juice.

Final Score Prediction: Cardinals 28 – Seahawks 20

Eagles @ Bengals

The Eagles, as a football team, could be compared to undersized bullies. They pick on weaker opponents relentlessly, but often get punched right back in the face and lose when facing opponents who possess strong running games with powerful backs. The Giants’ run game ground the Eagles to a patriotic pulp last week, showing little respect for the national bird. The Redskins’ potent run offense with Portis also controlled the game in a Philly loss in week #5. The 49ers led late into the game with Gore goring the small Eagles’ defense until a complete and utter meltdown by O’Sullivan in the 4th quarter gave the Eagles a storm from behind cover.

The Eagles’ defense, like the Colts, is one built to play for a team that holds the lead in the second half. Both are small and quick with better secondaries than defensive lines, and indeed their defensive lines are better pass rushers than ground stoppers. The Eagles’ defense feasts on opposing quarterbacks in obvious passing situations as their bevy of blitzes leads to 3.11 sacks and 1 interception per game. Look at poor Ben Roethlisberger who was sacked an astonishing 9 times when trying to lead his team from behind in week #3 (though I think he was injured in that game and may not have taken all of those sacks himself). The Eagles have averaged 4.4 sacks per game in the games they’ve won, and only 1.5 in the games they’ve lost. Clearly, once they’re not so concerned with stopping the run they thrive defensively.

Fortunately for the Eagles’ defense, they’re back to playing a team that is more patsy than powerful. The Bengals have been atrocious this year, and just managed to grab their first victory of the season two weeks ago at home versus the Jaguars before their bye. The Bengals, of course, have been without QB Carson Palmer the last 6 games, and have suffered for it. Palmer had gotten off to a slow start facing 3 of the toughest defenses in the league – the Ravens’, Titans’ and Giants’, but had improved each game and indeed pushed the Giants to overtime before losing. Since Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken over at QB the Bengals have thrown for over 200 yards only once in 6 games and have averaged just 141 yards passing per game, and when you’re trying to make up a deficit for most of the game those are pathetic numbers. Their run offense has improved since bringing in Cedric Benson – they’ve averaged 111 run yards per game and almost 4.5 yards per carry in their last 3. You’d think (though you never know with some coaches) that the Bengals would like to shorten this game with repeated runs by Cedric Benson. If they’re really interested in winning, they need to limit Fitzpatrick’s pass attempts in this game. The Bengals’ QBs have been sacked 3.3 times per game and thrown 1.1 interceptions per game. Fitzpatrick has also been fumble-prone when taking hits in the backfield. Being a fairly inexperienced quarterback, he’s exactly the kind of quarterback the Eagles’ defense could demolish if the run game has to be limited in the second half.

So I expect the Bengals to run as much as humanly possible on offense as that figures to be their best chance for success and serves the added beneficial purpose of shortening the game. Defensively is there anything they can do to limit the Eagles’ offensive weapons? The answer is a maybe leaning towards no. The Bengals have been a fair defensive team this year, certainly better than last year’s injured and inept squad. They’re better at defending the pass than the run, which suits them as the Eagles are better at passing than running. Clearly the Eagles will try to get their run game going versus a below average run defense, as all pass attacks benefit from believable play action. McNabb has gotten off to many slow starts as of late, so maybe the Eagles will come out running for a change. Overall, it will be hard for the Bengals to consistently stop the Eagles’ offense as the Eagles should do better than league average in yards per play for both their running and passing plays. When you can’t cheat with an extra player to stop either the run or the pass, you’re basically at the mercy of the opponent’s offensive execution, and the Eagles have certainly been known to execute, ne assassinate weak defenses over the years. Look for the Eagles to be the bullies on the road again in a similar match up to the one they faced two weeks ago in Seattle. Seattle scored on a 90 yard touchdown pass on their first offensive play of the game, but that was the end of it as the Eagles went on to win 26-7. The numbers indicate this game will be pretty near a carbon copy of that one.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – Bengals 10

Week #11 Lines & Values Table

***LINES UPDATED SAT. 11/15/08 3:34 AM EST WITH INJURY AND WEATHER INFORMATION***


The failure of most large favorites to cover in recent weeks has led me to take measures to reduce some of the bigger point spreads I've been generating this year. I've also incorporated the "successful run for/against" and "successful pass for/against" stats into my game match ups, which comes into effect when I have a team getting points toward the spread in either the pass or rush but have a lower overall successful for/against rating in that particular category. For example -- I have Indy with the advantage in the passing game this week, but because they have an overall lower successful pass plays for/against combined numbers than the Texans, the point spread bonus they were getting has been reduced. This is a part of the reason why my early numbers favored the Colts slightly, but now favor the Texans, who coincidentally have been receiving most of the betting money so far. This particular adjustment doesn't affect many lines, but it tightens up the lines in all cases where implemented. Overall the lines are tighter this week as a result of the adjustments, but I'm actually happy with that as it would be wishful thinking to think my lines are THAT much better than many of the lines across the board, lol.

Jets @ Patriots

I was bullish on the Bills last week, predicting an outright victory at New England. Boy did they make me look bad, lol. As expected, they didn’t get much going on the ground versus the Patriots, but what surprised me was how awful Trent Edwards and the passing game was. Maybe something really did get jarred loose in his head in that concussion he sustained at Saint Louis. Against one of the thinnest secondaries in the league he did almost nothing. Granted, he was without his #2 receiver, but that’s no excuse, there were still plenty of guys to throw the ball to. The defense looked equally inept, letting the Patriots convert third downs over and over. It’s not so much that the Patriots won that game, it’s more that the Bills just flat out lost it.

The Patriots face a divisional rival at home for the second week in a row. They beat the Jets 19-10 at The Meadowlands back in week #2. Things have changed since then. Brett Favre is now running the offensive efficiently, relying more on the 1st and 2nd level passes as of late, and they’re trusting in Thomas Jones and their run game more than they did early in the year. I remember begging into the void for them to run the ball earlier this season, calling Mangenius a Mantard for not doing so more, and it looks like the message finally got through, lol.

There’s really not much detail to go into in this game. It’s as clear as neon paint on a chalkboard – the Jets are better than the Patriots in just about every facet of the game. They run the ball better, they defend the run better. They pass the ball better, they defend the pass better. They sack opposing quarterbacks more while getting sacked less. They have a higher punt yards for average and a lower punt yards against average. They have a higher red zone conversion rate for and a lower red zone conversion rate against. Gostkowski has a stronger leg for more kickoff touchbacks for the Pats. If you rate that higher than all of the previous statistical disadvantages I listed, then by all means bet the Patriots in this game, lol. In spite of all this statistical inferiority the Belichick/Patriots mystique saw them open up as a 4 point favorite in this contest. Yes we jumped it and the line quickly came down. As of this writing the average line is Pats -3 (-120). Just like last week, the sharp money came in early against the Pats.

The Patriots have been winning games by virtue of playing a schedule loaded with weak run defenses. That comes to a halt this week, as the Jets have the 4th ranked rush defense. Cassel will no longer find himself in so many favorable passing situations, and will revert back to getting sacked and making some poor throws like he was doing earlier in the season. Just once this week I’d like to see him take off right up the middle of the pocket and instead of scrambling for a first down get whacked and fumble the ball, lol. Randy Moss missed a lot of plays last week, so his foot was clearly bothering him. With a short week leading up to the Thursday game, I’m not sure how much effective practice time he’ll see, or indeed how healthy his injury will be come Thursday. Getting points in this game is a gift, especially anything 3 or higher, as the numbers once again indicate the Patriots will be upset, and this time it seems even more likely with Brett Favre leading a balanced attack instead of Trent Edwards “leading” a one dimensional passing attack that ended up being hampered by the injuries at WR and the offensive line.

Final Score Prediction: Jets 21 – Patriots 17

MNF Week #10

Thank God for one minor miracle at the end of the game -- SF doesn't find the endzone. Not much else good inbetween the opening kickoff and the final gun. The game was decided by the opening kickoff, and the Cardinals failing to get a first down on their last possession gave S. Hill the opportunity to kill the Under Passing Yards bet. Frank Gore drops multiple passes to help kill the receptions and total yards plays. Thankfully those were late and I'm guessing many of you didn't get down on those.

HALFTIME PLAYS

2/3 Unit:

Over 24 (EV)
ARI -9.5

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!

We have it set up perfectly SF receiving the opening kickoff and then the worst case scenario for every single bet on the night is hurt by a kickoff return for a touchdown. Could this week be any unluckier...

Okay, got the ARI first field goal bet, I can calm down a little, but I won't be completely placid until SF makes the first punt of the game on the next possession, lol.

And a 49ers' punt...Stinks, we should've been up 1.5 units already as they made a first down and then punted. Still, with the field goal, up a half unit with the original 3 props already resolved. We can only hope to be on the right side of the plays like these ones, even if shit happens, lol. More ground for ARI to make up though to cover the spread. They moved the ball awful easy on the first drive, let's hope it continues.

Not as many props this week as Shaun Hill will be replacing JT O'Sullivan and it's hard to say how that will affect things.

***Added 3 more 10 minutes before kickoff***

2/3 Unit:

SF FIRST 1ST DOWN (+105)
The Cardinals have deferred 4 of 5 coin tosses, only opting to receive versus Dallas, who had a healthy Tony Romo starting that game. I don't think they fear the SF offense as much as they did Dallas', so I'm pretty sure they'll defer. SF has only won the coin toss twice and once received, once deferred. Overall the league has shown a strong tendency to receive, and even more so versus good offenses, so I think the 49ers are better than even to receive if they win the toss.

SF PUNTS FIRST (-130)
Goes hand in hand with receiving the ball first. If SF does indeed get the ball first, it will be nearly impossible for both of these plays to lose unless they turn the ball over before making a first down. Even if for some odd reason the Cardinals get the ball first they're more than capable of taking it down for a score, lol.

1/2 UNIT:

ARI MAKES 1ST FIELD GOAL (-105)
Arizona is favored to score more points than SF, and some of them are likely to come via field goals. The 49ers have a much better red zone defense than the Cardinals, actually, which can only help this play.

FRANK GORE OVER 4 REC. (-130)
FRANK GORE OVER 120.5 TOTAL YARDS (+105)
S. HILL UNDER 213.5 PASS YARDS (-105)

In addition, we've got ARI -9.5 (+101) and ARI -3 to finish off a teaser with Carolina.

Week #11 Plays

***LAST MINUTE MIDDLE PLAYS***

1 UNIT: NYG/BAL OVER 39
2/3 UNIT: NYG/BAL 1ST HALF UNDER 19.5 (-115)

Newer plays are listed only in the table above.

***Well, the lack of a heavy rain hurt us on the completion and Pats Under 23 plays, and the Jets' one fumble more than likely cost us the "No - 3 unanswered scores" play as they would've had 1st and 10 at the Pats 40 needing a score to break the chain, but them's the breaks. At least we ran the table on the Jets' 1st Q. 1st H. and +4 game plays to finish up +2.77 units, a nice start to week #11.***

2 Unit:

CHI/GB UNDER 44
ARI -2.5
ARI/SEA UNDER 48.5 (setting up a possible bad weather middle)
NO -4.5
NO/KC Over 47
Jets +4
TEN -3 (+105)
NYG -6.5
PHI -9
PHI/CIN UNDER 43

1 Unit:

NYJ +2.5 1st half (-105 BookMaker)
PIT -3.5
PIT/SD UNDER 43
NYG/BAL UNDER 42
MIN +4 (-108 MB)
HOU/IND OVER 49
MIA/OAK UNDER 39 (-107 MB)
CAR -14
SF -6

2/3 Unit:

CLE +4.5
MIA -10 (-120 BOUGHT THE HOOK)

1/4 Unit:

ML Parlay MIA/NYG/PHI/NO/CAR/SF/ARI to win 1.58 units.