Any game involving the Ravens will inevitably be labeled as “physical,” and this one versus the division rival Browns will be no different, lol. The Browns will seek revenge from a week #2 loss that saw them play okay but lose as a more or less result of two interceptions thrown by Anderson. Anderson and the Browns have been putting it together on offense in recent weeks since getting some players back. They’ve won as 7 point dogs versus the Giants and Jaguars, while narrowly losing a game versus the Redskins in which they were badly outgained. They really struggled offensively versus the best defense of those 3 teams I just mentioned – the Redskins. Here they face a Ravens’ defense with similar, and slightly better, numbers than the Redskins. The one thing they’ll have going for them this game are the numerous injuries to the Baltimore secondary, the same thing that cost Baltimore many a game last year. The Ravens’ pass defense has actually been pretty average after the second week of the season. That coincides with the injury to safety Dawan Landry. It would appear that Jim Leonhard taking his place has been a significant drop in skill at the position. Landry will be back in a week or two. CB McCallister, a 2 time Pro Bowler, has been dealing with injuries and it looks like he may be done for the year. Aging and perpetually gimpy Samari Rolle may be back for this game. If you like watching a cornerback running 2 steps behind the receiver, tune in if Samari sees significant playing time. Any DB guarding a Cleveland WR will be giving up a step, actually.
I better slow down before I talk myself out of the Ravens, lol. I am making a case for the fact that the Browns will be able to score some points in this game, though. No one has had a successful running game versus the Ravens in quite some time (26 consecutive games without giving up a 100 yard rusher, I believe?), so the Browns will need to air it out to win this game, and they are blessed with weapons for just such an attack. The Browns’ vertical passing game will help the Over in this game.
So you can mark the Browns down for about 17 points (minimum) versus a defense that allows 18.8. How will the Ravens’ offense fare? Even better. They have the luxury of having match up advantages in both the running and passing games, offensively. I project the Ravens to do better than league average in both yards per run and yards per pass, though their biggest advantage will be running the ball. As the Browns will have to defend the run first on most non-obvious passing downs, Flacco should find comfortable gaps in the defense to throw the ball to when passing, and play action should be particularly effective. Teams that run the ball well have a big advantage offensively because the quarterbacks will find themselves under less pass-rushing pressure with fewer defenders in the secondary time after time. The Titans didn’t have a great game running the ball versus the Colts last week, as the Colts were committed to stopping the run, but as a result, Kerry Collins found many soft spots to throw to and completed enough passes to keep drives alive and win the ball game. Flacco also has a strong arm and can throw an accurate deep ball, so both of these teams have home run potential on any given play. Just like the Titans knew the Colts were defending the run first and so came out passing the ball more on early downs, so will the Ravens. Offenses have to punish defenses who over-commit to stop either the run or the pass.
Clearly Flacco has had some road woes this year, hurting his team with costly turnovers. It’s a positive sign, though, that he had his best passing game of the season in his last road start at Miami, and followed that up with another good outing last week versus the Raiders. The rookie QB, like Matt Ryan, is showing improvement in his play both at home and on the road.
Putting the pieces together, the Ravens should have a good offensive day due to their now more balanced attack versus a below average Browns’ defense. The Browns will run the ball as long as they’re mildly successful or failing that, just enough to keep the Ravens’ defense honest. Yes, it’s true that Jamal Lewis had a good yards per carry average on only 12 carries versus the Ravens in week #2, but good luck maintaining that average for 20+ carries, as recent history suggest that will be a near impossibility. The Browns may talk run, but they have to know that to beat the Ravens they’ll need to do what the Colts did a few weeks ago and exploit the only advantage they have in this game, their speedy TEs and WRs versus an injured and statistically declining Ravens’ secondary.
Final Score Prediction: Ravens 22 – Browns 17 (with Matt Stover kicking 5 field goals for the Ravens, lol)
The weather forecast as of Friday still looks pretty mild, so any number under 37 is a gift for the Over. Close games like this one rates to be feature teams trying to score all the way until the final possession, and as I like to point out, a 17-17 tie at any point is a winner on any Over below 37 barring a scoreless OT.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Bucs @ Chiefs
The Bucs continue their western trek by pointing the compass north from Dallas to Kansas City this week. They’re hoping their fortunes are pointing up as well, as an inability to score a single touchdown on 262 offensive yards last week meant they scored in the single digits (9 points) for the first time this season, as well as being only the second time they’ve scored less than 20 this season. They outgained the Cowboys by 90 yards, so it was a particularly stinging loss for a team needing every win possible in the resurgent NFC South this year.
The Chiefs return to Arrowhead after taking the Jets to the wire last week, giving up the game losing score with a minute to play. They had their second best offensive game of the year, accruing 330 yards. Defensively, they were still one of the worst in the league, surrendering 421 yards. How bad has their run defense been? They’ve allowed a whopping 198 yards rushing per game to opponents this year. Not good news when you’re facing the Bucs’ 9th ranked rush attack. The Bucs will not have Warrick Dunn available for this game, as the Bucs are planning on resting the pinched nerve in his back after giving him limited carries last week. Gruden regretted playing him at all last week, he was quoted as saying. That means Earnest Graham will continue to get the bulk of the carries, as well as playing as a blocking full back occasionally, the Bucs are so thin at RB right now. Still, it’s not a huge concern, as running against the Chiefs requires nothing more than any old run of the mill running back holding onto the ball and running downhill through a gaping hole.
Larry Johnson and Spitgate continue to be news in KC. Apparently coach Edwards is so down on LJ right now that he’s going to continue benching him without the league or the law mandating him to do so. The carries, therefore, will continue to be handled by Kolby Smith. 3rd stringer Jamaal Charles is banged up and “?” to go, so the Chiefs clearly have plenty of running back woes of their own. The Chiefs have only gotten more than 102 yards rushing in a game twice this season – 184 versus the Falcons, and 214 versus the Broncos – two teams with sub-par run defenses. The Bucs have the 6th rated run defense, so the Chiefs will be hard pressed to have any success on the ground in this match up.
An interesting development that should affect what we see in this game is the semi-spread offense the Chiefs went with last week. As their offense and season have been so poor, they had nothing to lose by trying something new last week with the mobile Thigpen back at QB. They ran some no-huddle and shotgun rollouts, the kind of offense Thigpen played in college at Coastal Carolina. As they rate to be playing from behind for the entire 2nd half, odds are they’ll do it again this week in an effort to gain ground versus the Bucs, who oddly enough were the 3rd worst team in the league last year when defending 5-wide sets. Still, the Bucs have the 5th ranked pass defense, and Thigpen may not be able to avoid any turnovers two weeks in a row.
The Bucs have not had a particularly explosive passing game this year, ranking 19th. Their best/only deep threat, Joey Galloway, has been hampered by injuries. Still, they’ve got some solid pass-catching tight ends and wide receivers. WR Antonio Bryant is having a career-resurrecting season with a combination of good on the field play and no off the field blunders. The Chiefs defensively are again near the bottom of the pack with the 31st ranked pass defense, with only the Lions being worse than they.
Clearly the Bucs have the advantage in just about every imaginable match up. The Chiefs had one of the strongest punters in the league with Dustin Colquitt, but he’s sidelined with a groin injury right now. They’ve also switched kickers, and just added a new long snapper. If any team in the league is primed to have a blocked or botched punt/field goal attempt this week, it’s the Chiefs. They figure to have a lot more punt attempts than field goal attempts this week, so the Bucs could find themselves with very favorable field position on more than one occasion. This will help the Over. The Chiefs have given up 34 points or more in 3 of their 7 games this season – this will help the Over. The Chiefs will most likely run their variation of the spread with the no-huddle and shotgun for the second week in a row, this will help the Over. As of this writing, there are still 36.5s available on the board, which is on the right side of 37 when betting the Over. The weather will be mostly cloudy with 12-17 mph winds, not poor enough conditions to affect the offenses, really. I recommended the Over 37 earlier in the week for 1 Unit. Now that the Chiefs will be running an offense more conducive to the Over (and Bucs starting SS Phillips is out with a broken arm), there is even more value on the Over. I’d recommend taking an additional half Unit on the Over 36.5.
Final Score Prediction: Bucs 31 – Chiefs 13
The Chiefs return to Arrowhead after taking the Jets to the wire last week, giving up the game losing score with a minute to play. They had their second best offensive game of the year, accruing 330 yards. Defensively, they were still one of the worst in the league, surrendering 421 yards. How bad has their run defense been? They’ve allowed a whopping 198 yards rushing per game to opponents this year. Not good news when you’re facing the Bucs’ 9th ranked rush attack. The Bucs will not have Warrick Dunn available for this game, as the Bucs are planning on resting the pinched nerve in his back after giving him limited carries last week. Gruden regretted playing him at all last week, he was quoted as saying. That means Earnest Graham will continue to get the bulk of the carries, as well as playing as a blocking full back occasionally, the Bucs are so thin at RB right now. Still, it’s not a huge concern, as running against the Chiefs requires nothing more than any old run of the mill running back holding onto the ball and running downhill through a gaping hole.
Larry Johnson and Spitgate continue to be news in KC. Apparently coach Edwards is so down on LJ right now that he’s going to continue benching him without the league or the law mandating him to do so. The carries, therefore, will continue to be handled by Kolby Smith. 3rd stringer Jamaal Charles is banged up and “?” to go, so the Chiefs clearly have plenty of running back woes of their own. The Chiefs have only gotten more than 102 yards rushing in a game twice this season – 184 versus the Falcons, and 214 versus the Broncos – two teams with sub-par run defenses. The Bucs have the 6th rated run defense, so the Chiefs will be hard pressed to have any success on the ground in this match up.
An interesting development that should affect what we see in this game is the semi-spread offense the Chiefs went with last week. As their offense and season have been so poor, they had nothing to lose by trying something new last week with the mobile Thigpen back at QB. They ran some no-huddle and shotgun rollouts, the kind of offense Thigpen played in college at Coastal Carolina. As they rate to be playing from behind for the entire 2nd half, odds are they’ll do it again this week in an effort to gain ground versus the Bucs, who oddly enough were the 3rd worst team in the league last year when defending 5-wide sets. Still, the Bucs have the 5th ranked pass defense, and Thigpen may not be able to avoid any turnovers two weeks in a row.
The Bucs have not had a particularly explosive passing game this year, ranking 19th. Their best/only deep threat, Joey Galloway, has been hampered by injuries. Still, they’ve got some solid pass-catching tight ends and wide receivers. WR Antonio Bryant is having a career-resurrecting season with a combination of good on the field play and no off the field blunders. The Chiefs defensively are again near the bottom of the pack with the 31st ranked pass defense, with only the Lions being worse than they.
Clearly the Bucs have the advantage in just about every imaginable match up. The Chiefs had one of the strongest punters in the league with Dustin Colquitt, but he’s sidelined with a groin injury right now. They’ve also switched kickers, and just added a new long snapper. If any team in the league is primed to have a blocked or botched punt/field goal attempt this week, it’s the Chiefs. They figure to have a lot more punt attempts than field goal attempts this week, so the Bucs could find themselves with very favorable field position on more than one occasion. This will help the Over. The Chiefs have given up 34 points or more in 3 of their 7 games this season – this will help the Over. The Chiefs will most likely run their variation of the spread with the no-huddle and shotgun for the second week in a row, this will help the Over. As of this writing, there are still 36.5s available on the board, which is on the right side of 37 when betting the Over. The weather will be mostly cloudy with 12-17 mph winds, not poor enough conditions to affect the offenses, really. I recommended the Over 37 earlier in the week for 1 Unit. Now that the Chiefs will be running an offense more conducive to the Over (and Bucs starting SS Phillips is out with a broken arm), there is even more value on the Over. I’d recommend taking an additional half Unit on the Over 36.5.
Final Score Prediction: Bucs 31 – Chiefs 13
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Patriots @ Colts
Some may attribute the Patriots’ impressive 5-2 post-Brady record to coach Belichick’s brilliance and gutsy play from the rest of the entire “I am not Tom Brady” roster. Certainly they are still solid in the trenches and at wide receiver. But are they as good as their 5-2 record would indicate?
Last week I predicted that the game in Foxboro versus the lowly but “now with a pulse” Rams would be played to a standstill. Indeed, the game was back and forth and tied until the Patriots’ scored the winning touchdown with 3 minutes left in the game. Unfortunately for the Rams, the only bruising their bestial running back, Steven Jackson, would be dealing with that day would be with the large one on his thigh, as he ended up sitting out as a game time decision. Still, the Rams were right there in the thick of it, and actually just outgained and out-yards-per-played the Pats by a very small margin.
After just scraping by versus the 3rd worst defense in the league at home, what can we expect out of the Patriots this week at Indy? The Colts bring a league average defense to the game, for starters, and the 10th stingiest pass defense (23rd versus the run). The Patriots have played a very soft schedule of pass defenses so far, the 3rd easiest by my rankings. The top pass defense they’ve faced was the 49ers, ranked 16th, right on the league average of 6.3 yards per pass play allowed (by my rescored stats). In spite of playing against 3 better than average run defenses this year; the 49ers’, Dolphins’ and Jets’, the Patriots have still faced the 1st or 2nd weakest schedule of rush defenses of anyone in the league by virtue of also playing against the Chiefs, Broncos and Rams. In spite of the incredibly soft defensive schedule, the Patriots have not excelled versus an opposing defense’s allowed averages against anyone this year, the lone exception being the huge running week they had versus the Broncos’ battered and bewildered defense. In that game, they still threw for an average per pass far below what the Broncos normally allow. As a matter of fact, the Patriots have failed to gain more yards per pass play than an opponent typically allows even once this year. Assuming then, that they have an average at best (for them) day offensively, can the defense help them out enough to cover or win in Indy?
Umm, no. I have the Patriots ranked 19th versus the run, and 24th versus the pass. Hey, that’s not even as good as the Colts’ defense. Any reason to be bullish on the Patriots’ pass defense regardless of their 24th ranking? Umm, double no. This will be their second game without SS Rodney Harrison (IR). Ellis Hobbs, their best cornerback, was injured last game and is expected to miss this week. The other starting CB, Deltha O’Neal, was also injured last week and is “?” for this week. So who is going to step up and fill at least one of those pairs of cornerbacks’ shoes versus Peyton Manning this week? Not CB Lewis Sanders, who missed last game and is doubtful for this one as well. I guess it’s up to Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite. Good luck, rookies!
And how has the Colts’ passing game fared as of late? Rather well, minus the odd interception that the opponent’s seem capable of holding onto, while the Colts themselves cannot. The Colts have faced 3 top 10 defenses in their last 3 games and fared better than those 3 teams (Ravens, Packers, Titans) normally allow in every one. They were average, by the Colts’ standards, early in the year as they dealt with injuries along the offensive line and at TE, not to mention Peyton having to use the first 4 games to substitute for the preseason he missed due to surgery recovery. As they’ve gotten healthier, so has their passing game. By all accounts, they should have beaten the Titans last Monday, as they outgained them in yards and yards per play, but suffered a loss due to the aforementioned inability to hang onto interceptions that may have been pick 6s on two occasions, while the Titans intercepted two, and the 4th and 1 failure at the 50.
So we have an ascending pass offense in the Colts facing a poor and worsened by injury pass defense of the Patriots. Did I mention that Joseph Addai was announced as probable today (Wednesday)? Once the Patriots undoubtedly fall behind on the scoreboard, will their 29th ranked pass offense find enough success versus the 10th ranked pass defense to come back and cover the spread? Not likely. Will the Colts, at home, have revenge on their minds after last year’s home loss? Rhetorical question. The Colts desperately need this game, and will pile it on big time. Even the meek Tony Dungy may engage in a little bit of Belichick run it up belligerence.
Did I mention that Bob Sanders and Kelvin Hayden will be back in the Colts’ secondary? Did I mention…did I mention…
Final Score Prediction: Patriots 14 – Colts 31
Last week I predicted that the game in Foxboro versus the lowly but “now with a pulse” Rams would be played to a standstill. Indeed, the game was back and forth and tied until the Patriots’ scored the winning touchdown with 3 minutes left in the game. Unfortunately for the Rams, the only bruising their bestial running back, Steven Jackson, would be dealing with that day would be with the large one on his thigh, as he ended up sitting out as a game time decision. Still, the Rams were right there in the thick of it, and actually just outgained and out-yards-per-played the Pats by a very small margin.
After just scraping by versus the 3rd worst defense in the league at home, what can we expect out of the Patriots this week at Indy? The Colts bring a league average defense to the game, for starters, and the 10th stingiest pass defense (23rd versus the run). The Patriots have played a very soft schedule of pass defenses so far, the 3rd easiest by my rankings. The top pass defense they’ve faced was the 49ers, ranked 16th, right on the league average of 6.3 yards per pass play allowed (by my rescored stats). In spite of playing against 3 better than average run defenses this year; the 49ers’, Dolphins’ and Jets’, the Patriots have still faced the 1st or 2nd weakest schedule of rush defenses of anyone in the league by virtue of also playing against the Chiefs, Broncos and Rams. In spite of the incredibly soft defensive schedule, the Patriots have not excelled versus an opposing defense’s allowed averages against anyone this year, the lone exception being the huge running week they had versus the Broncos’ battered and bewildered defense. In that game, they still threw for an average per pass far below what the Broncos normally allow. As a matter of fact, the Patriots have failed to gain more yards per pass play than an opponent typically allows even once this year. Assuming then, that they have an average at best (for them) day offensively, can the defense help them out enough to cover or win in Indy?
Umm, no. I have the Patriots ranked 19th versus the run, and 24th versus the pass. Hey, that’s not even as good as the Colts’ defense. Any reason to be bullish on the Patriots’ pass defense regardless of their 24th ranking? Umm, double no. This will be their second game without SS Rodney Harrison (IR). Ellis Hobbs, their best cornerback, was injured last game and is expected to miss this week. The other starting CB, Deltha O’Neal, was also injured last week and is “?” for this week. So who is going to step up and fill at least one of those pairs of cornerbacks’ shoes versus Peyton Manning this week? Not CB Lewis Sanders, who missed last game and is doubtful for this one as well. I guess it’s up to Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite. Good luck, rookies!
And how has the Colts’ passing game fared as of late? Rather well, minus the odd interception that the opponent’s seem capable of holding onto, while the Colts themselves cannot. The Colts have faced 3 top 10 defenses in their last 3 games and fared better than those 3 teams (Ravens, Packers, Titans) normally allow in every one. They were average, by the Colts’ standards, early in the year as they dealt with injuries along the offensive line and at TE, not to mention Peyton having to use the first 4 games to substitute for the preseason he missed due to surgery recovery. As they’ve gotten healthier, so has their passing game. By all accounts, they should have beaten the Titans last Monday, as they outgained them in yards and yards per play, but suffered a loss due to the aforementioned inability to hang onto interceptions that may have been pick 6s on two occasions, while the Titans intercepted two, and the 4th and 1 failure at the 50.
So we have an ascending pass offense in the Colts facing a poor and worsened by injury pass defense of the Patriots. Did I mention that Joseph Addai was announced as probable today (Wednesday)? Once the Patriots undoubtedly fall behind on the scoreboard, will their 29th ranked pass offense find enough success versus the 10th ranked pass defense to come back and cover the spread? Not likely. Will the Colts, at home, have revenge on their minds after last year’s home loss? Rhetorical question. The Colts desperately need this game, and will pile it on big time. Even the meek Tony Dungy may engage in a little bit of Belichick run it up belligerence.
Did I mention that Bob Sanders and Kelvin Hayden will be back in the Colts’ secondary? Did I mention…did I mention…
Final Score Prediction: Patriots 14 – Colts 31
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Thoughts on My Lines & Line Movements & Middles
For the second week in a row, my lines are picking more favorites and Overs. Last week we did well on the totals, +4 Units, and just narrowly missed being +5.5 Units when the Browns failed to get a touchdown on 1st and Goal from the one. A touchdown there would've put the total Over the 40.5. It was pretty much an even week on the sides played, as the stronger selections did pretty well, while most everything else went by the way side, in no small part due to the horrible turnover ratios we suffered in many games. The bad turnover imbalance over the last few weeks makes it harder to gauge how good my lines on the sides have actually been. I was killing the sides earlier this season, but have done quite poorly the last 2 weeks when looking at all the sides, which is what is graded at thepredictiontracker. There have been several games the past few weeks where I've had the dogs picked to cover and in spite of gaining more yards than their opponents, they lost and also failed to cover. What I'm probably going to do is look at the yards per play averages for each team and project what the final score would have been based on NFL averages. That will give us a ballpark estimation of the quality wins and losses for the week.
As I've said before, I've traditionally been stronger on sides than totals with my lines. This week's line movements attest to that. I'm almost always on the right side of the biggest line moves with totals. On sides it can be hit and miss. I've dropped a half point on a couple of games where I really liked the other side so far this week. The lesson to be learned is that if you're looking to put extra units down on an early play looking to set up a middle, my strongest value totals are the ones to do it with. This week, the OAK/ATL Over was showing the most value versus the opening lines, and it ended up being the line with the most movement in the first hour. The MIN/HOU & DEN/MIA Overs followed suit within the day. We've had overall good success with line movements on sides as well this year, but I think there will be fewer opportunities with middles there, as most of the line changes with sides occur on the less key numbers. The books are loathe to move numbers through 3,7 & 10 for fear of being middled. The lines don't move as much on the sides typically anyways, as the books tend to post softer lines on the totals that the sharps (like us, lol) will attack right away forcing the books to make quick adjustments.
As I've said before, I've traditionally been stronger on sides than totals with my lines. This week's line movements attest to that. I'm almost always on the right side of the biggest line moves with totals. On sides it can be hit and miss. I've dropped a half point on a couple of games where I really liked the other side so far this week. The lesson to be learned is that if you're looking to put extra units down on an early play looking to set up a middle, my strongest value totals are the ones to do it with. This week, the OAK/ATL Over was showing the most value versus the opening lines, and it ended up being the line with the most movement in the first hour. The MIN/HOU & DEN/MIA Overs followed suit within the day. We've had overall good success with line movements on sides as well this year, but I think there will be fewer opportunities with middles there, as most of the line changes with sides occur on the less key numbers. The books are loathe to move numbers through 3,7 & 10 for fear of being middled. The lines don't move as much on the sides typically anyways, as the books tend to post softer lines on the totals that the sharps (like us, lol) will attack right away forcing the books to make quick adjustments.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Prop Me Up -- MNF Props Week #8
The Titans, bless their hearts, elected to receive for the first time this season, after winning the 50/50 coin toss. And, of course, they convert on a 3rd and 6 to sink the big prop of the night. Getting really ****ing sick of these MNF games! And of course, a barely broken up 3rd and 4 for the Colts that will probably sink the 1st Q. play. I don't know why I even get out of bed on Mondays, lol.
Ah, that's more like. End of 1st Q. 7-3 Colts, so we got a piece of the prop back with the 1st Q. winner.
What a crock of shit, lol. Titans 3rd Q. touchdown drive courtesy of penalties and third down conversions. And, of course, they convert the 2 point conversion to really hurt the chances of the 3rd Q. play (further hurt by them taking an extra minute to score after failing on 1st and 2nd Down), and hurting the Team Total play (which was posted near the wire and most of you probably missed) as now a field goal alone makes that a loser. What a crock of shit, lol. I feel so jinxed on Monday nights it's scary.
Sheesh, what a 4th Quarter! On the plus side, we got the Over for the game, the only strong play we had heading into this game. On the down side, we had no luck whatsoever on 2 other big plays, the Colts first to get a 1st Down, and the Colts Pick 3rd quarter play. I about blew a gasket at the end of that third quarter. Sooooo many things had to happen favorably for the Titans to kill that bet, sooooooo many things, lol. Also on the plus side, we nailed all of the other prop plays, I must really pat myself on the back for coming up with those winners, lol. Sorry about the 2nd halfers -- they were looking sweet after the Colts got the expected first touchdown in the 3rd Q. But then yeah, my MNF jinx came back in full effect. Eh, take away the Titans' first 3rd and 6 conversion and we're up over 1 Unit on the night (if the Colts make a first down after receiving the punt). As it is, with no luck on that play and the Titans' successful two point conversion (another chance to be ahead on the night), posted plays for the game are -1 unit, leaving my record at +3 units for the week.
1 Unit:
IND First to make 1st Down. (-140)
IND 3-0 elected to receive. TEN 2-0 elected to defer.
½ Unit:
Total Sacks Under 3.5 (+100)
TEN Makes Shortest FG (-115)
TEN Makes Longest FG (-125)
D. Clark receiving yards -8.5 vs Bo Scaife (-115)
Ah, that's more like. End of 1st Q. 7-3 Colts, so we got a piece of the prop back with the 1st Q. winner.
What a crock of shit, lol. Titans 3rd Q. touchdown drive courtesy of penalties and third down conversions. And, of course, they convert the 2 point conversion to really hurt the chances of the 3rd Q. play (further hurt by them taking an extra minute to score after failing on 1st and 2nd Down), and hurting the Team Total play (which was posted near the wire and most of you probably missed) as now a field goal alone makes that a loser. What a crock of shit, lol. I feel so jinxed on Monday nights it's scary.
Sheesh, what a 4th Quarter! On the plus side, we got the Over for the game, the only strong play we had heading into this game. On the down side, we had no luck whatsoever on 2 other big plays, the Colts first to get a 1st Down, and the Colts Pick 3rd quarter play. I about blew a gasket at the end of that third quarter. Sooooo many things had to happen favorably for the Titans to kill that bet, sooooooo many things, lol. Also on the plus side, we nailed all of the other prop plays, I must really pat myself on the back for coming up with those winners, lol. Sorry about the 2nd halfers -- they were looking sweet after the Colts got the expected first touchdown in the 3rd Q. But then yeah, my MNF jinx came back in full effect. Eh, take away the Titans' first 3rd and 6 conversion and we're up over 1 Unit on the night (if the Colts make a first down after receiving the punt). As it is, with no luck on that play and the Titans' successful two point conversion (another chance to be ahead on the night), posted plays for the game are -1 unit, leaving my record at +3 units for the week.
1 Unit:
IND First to make 1st Down. (-140)
IND 3-0 elected to receive. TEN 2-0 elected to defer.
½ Unit:
Total Sacks Under 3.5 (+100)
TEN Makes Shortest FG (-115)
TEN Makes Longest FG (-125)
D. Clark receiving yards -8.5 vs Bo Scaife (-115)
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Week #8 Monday Night Football
Really not liking the buyback on the Titans now, lol.
1/2 Unit:
Titans Team Total Under 10.5 2nd half (+105 5Dimes)
1 Unit:
Colts Pick 3rd Q. (-115)
Colts start 2nd half with ball and the slight wind at their backs.
2/3 Unit:
Colts +3 2nd half (-125)
*** As I haven't shown any value on the Colts for most of the week now with my lines, I'm getting off of the ATS play with a 1 Unit bet on the Titans -4(+102 Matchbook), which after the commission fee ends up being a juice free way to get off of the the play. The way my luck has been running on Monday night, it's probably a good thing, lol. I'll let the ML play on the Colts ride.
I currently have the Colts +4, ML and Over 42 plays active coming into this game. My line for this game now suggests there's not much value to playing a side. The Over, especially at 40, is a solid deal. The Colts will probably employ a shotgun offense much of the game, and they typically play at an up tempo pace. The Colts' pass offense has been steadily improving with their health returning, while the Titan's pass defense has been regressing some from their very strong start.
I'm adding, for a 1/2 Unit, Colts +0.5 (-120) 1st quarter, as the Colts like to receive while the Titans prefer to defer.
I'll take a closer look at some of the prop bets tomorrow afternoon, as I've been doing pretty well them the last few Monday nights.
1/2 Unit:
Titans Team Total Under 10.5 2nd half (+105 5Dimes)
1 Unit:
Colts Pick 3rd Q. (-115)
Colts start 2nd half with ball and the slight wind at their backs.
2/3 Unit:
Colts +3 2nd half (-125)
*** As I haven't shown any value on the Colts for most of the week now with my lines, I'm getting off of the ATS play with a 1 Unit bet on the Titans -4(+102 Matchbook), which after the commission fee ends up being a juice free way to get off of the the play. The way my luck has been running on Monday night, it's probably a good thing, lol. I'll let the ML play on the Colts ride.
I currently have the Colts +4, ML and Over 42 plays active coming into this game. My line for this game now suggests there's not much value to playing a side. The Over, especially at 40, is a solid deal. The Colts will probably employ a shotgun offense much of the game, and they typically play at an up tempo pace. The Colts' pass offense has been steadily improving with their health returning, while the Titan's pass defense has been regressing some from their very strong start.
I'm adding, for a 1/2 Unit, Colts +0.5 (-120) 1st quarter, as the Colts like to receive while the Titans prefer to defer.
I'll take a closer look at some of the prop bets tomorrow afternoon, as I've been doing pretty well them the last few Monday nights.
Week #9 Lines
***Final Update 11/1 12:19 am EST***
My score projections are creeping up, but my totals have been fairly solid year, and I like the positions we took on these early lines. I mayyyyyy have to look at adjusting some variables down if we don't clobber the majority of these Overs we're looking at for week #9.
***Weather Update 11/1 12:19 am EST***
The weather concerns have mostly cleared up except for a bit of early rain in Chicago and the usual Seattle drizzle with some gusty winds. The forecast in Oakland has gotten a bit worse, 60% chance of showers, light winds.
Week #8 Sunday Wrap
Well, 3 turnovers led to 3 touchdowns that ended up sinking all the 1st half plays, but the second halves were much kinder as we crushed it nailing all the various bets with the 'Skins except for the one push I had at -8, though I'm sure most of the rest of you probably got the -7.5 at worst, as it wasn't on the -8 for long. The Bucs outgained the Cowboys by almost 100 yards and still lost, that one was a bummer. Most of the other games went according to script, except with the turnovers for the Jets killing their chances at covering. Finally had a couple of late breaks in a game, with Westbrook busting the long run to give us the 2nd half and game plays, and with the Redskins only scoring a late field goal to preserve all of the Under play. Both the Eagles and Redskins were able to keep the opponent out of the endzone late -- but hey, with the defense they have, that's factored into the bets that ended up being winners.
On quick count (without going through and grading every play), I have all of the posted plays at +10.4 Units, with the Bengals +22 the only active teaser leg needed. I haven't had the best of luck getting the 4th leg of the monster teasers lately, so fingers crossed! Oh yeah, we also hit the middle on the CAR/ARI game if you got down on those plays when recommended!
***Post Afternoon Game Thoughts***
Wow, I don't know if being up 4 Units on the day has ever felt this bad before. Those afternoon games were unkind, culminating with the Giants 12-0 4th quarter, a 3.6 unit swing quarter. Oh well, in the plus, we live to fight another day.
On quick count (without going through and grading every play), I have all of the posted plays at +10.4 Units, with the Bengals +22 the only active teaser leg needed. I haven't had the best of luck getting the 4th leg of the monster teasers lately, so fingers crossed! Oh yeah, we also hit the middle on the CAR/ARI game if you got down on those plays when recommended!
***Post Afternoon Game Thoughts***
Wow, I don't know if being up 4 Units on the day has ever felt this bad before. Those afternoon games were unkind, culminating with the Giants 12-0 4th quarter, a 3.6 unit swing quarter. Oh well, in the plus, we live to fight another day.
Week #8 Halftime Plays
Really not liking the buyback on the Titans now, lol.
1/2 Unit:
Titans Team Total Under 10.5 2nd half (+105 5Dimes)
1 Unit:
Colts Pick 3rd Q. (-115)
Colts start 2nd half with the ball and slight wind at their backs.
2/3 Unit:
Colts +3 2nd half (-125)
Hi all, keep your finger on the refresh button here when the first game goes into the half today.
Boy howdy, the 49ers are outgaining the Seahawks 5.0 ypp to 3.6, and are losing 3-20. Sheesh. Good thing we have a morning buffer, because these afternooners are not going quite so well, lol.
***AFTERNOON GAMES***
1 Unit:
49ers -4 (some -3.5s out there - 5Dimes) (Woah -- just shot up to 5 and 6 -- reduce the play to 2/3 Unit at -5 or -6)
2/3 Unit:
PIT -2.5
SEA/SF UNDER 20 (ONLY IF YOU CAN GET 20)
HOU/CIN UNDER 23 available now
Browns +6.5
1 Unit:
NO/SD OVER 23.5
2/3 Unit:
ARI +4
PHI -4
1/2 Unit:
BAL -3 (not if you can only get -3.5)
BAL/OAK Under 16 2nd half
HALFTIME LINES VERY TIGHT SO FAR!
***That's all the halftime plays for the early games.***
1/2 Unit:
Titans Team Total Under 10.5 2nd half (+105 5Dimes)
1 Unit:
Colts Pick 3rd Q. (-115)
Colts start 2nd half with the ball and slight wind at their backs.
2/3 Unit:
Colts +3 2nd half (-125)
Hi all, keep your finger on the refresh button here when the first game goes into the half today.
Boy howdy, the 49ers are outgaining the Seahawks 5.0 ypp to 3.6, and are losing 3-20. Sheesh. Good thing we have a morning buffer, because these afternooners are not going quite so well, lol.
***AFTERNOON GAMES***
1 Unit:
49ers -4 (some -3.5s out there - 5Dimes) (Woah -- just shot up to 5 and 6 -- reduce the play to 2/3 Unit at -5 or -6)
2/3 Unit:
PIT -2.5
SEA/SF UNDER 20 (ONLY IF YOU CAN GET 20)
HOU/CIN UNDER 23 available now
Browns +6.5
1 Unit:
NO/SD OVER 23.5
2/3 Unit:
ARI +4
PHI -4
1/2 Unit:
BAL -3 (not if you can only get -3.5)
BAL/OAK Under 16 2nd half
HALFTIME LINES VERY TIGHT SO FAR!
***That's all the halftime plays for the early games.***
Friday, October 24, 2008
Redskins @ Lions
The Lions have covered the spread the last two weeks, both times in losing efforts. In Minneapolis two weeks ago they somehow managed to lead for most of the game versus the Vikings until giving up a game losing field goal late in the contest. I say “somehow” because they were outgained 212 to 392 yards. Yup, they were almost doubled up in yards and only lost by 2 points (the very two points the Vikings scored when Orlovsky rolled out of the pocket in the endzone and right out of bounds for a good ten yards. You’ll have to excuse Orlovsky, though, as it was his first start in the NFL). Hmm, methinks a turnover differential must have come into play…(checking game book)…yup, 3 Viking turnovers to the Lions 1. Last week the Lions outscored the 4th quarter coasting Texans 11-0 in said 4th quarter to only lose by 7 (pushing the opening number wager on the Texans I recommended. Getting the early lines made a difference in a lot of games last week, more so than usual). The big play for the Lions was a 94 yard pitch and catch to Calvin Johnson versus a dinged up and deficient Houston secondary. Even with that field-spanning play they were still outgained 326 to 404 yards. Take that play away and they were 30 yards within being doubled up in yards by a Texans’ team that couldn’t be bothered to score for a cover in the 4th quarter. Orlovsky hasn’t been completely miserable in replacing Kitna by virtue of starting against two subpar pass defenses. No such luck this week as he faces the #4 ranked pass defense of the Redskins. At least he gets a home start this week, though I’m not sure how interested Detroitians are in the Lions right now, and any fans showing up may be left with little to cheer for beyond lessened exit traffic due to a steady, coordinated exodus beginning in the 3rd quarter if this game gets out of hand early (and it’ll take a lot of luck for the Lions for it to not to).
The Redskins have been dealing with a few injuries to their defense, but they are injuries they’ve been dealing with the entire season, so their stats are fairly indicative of the level of play they’ll be capable of in this game. The Lions had a couple of injuries to their offensive line a couple of games ago, but as of last week were starting the same week #1 line with the exception of Damion Cook taking over the starting LG position from 10 year man Edwin Mulitalo. The Redskins offensive line has been healthy this season (as opposed to the disastrous early season injuries they suffered last year), with the only shake up being Jon Jansen starting at RG the last few weeks instead of Stephen Heyer, though both players are rated fairly equally, if I’m not mistaken.
I’ll dispense with the gory match up disadvantages for the Lions in this game, and head straight to the numbers. Redskins’ #2 run offense vs. Lions’ #30 run defense. Redskins’ #18 pass offense vs. Lions’ #32 pass defense. Lions’ #20 run offense vs. Redskins’ #7 run defense. Lions’ #24 pass offense vs. Redskins’ #4 pass defense.
I think the Redskins will be plenty motivated to maintain a healthy lead in this game, as they’ve seriously underachieved in turning their offensive yards into points the last two weeks, letting the Rams hang around and beat them at the buzzer, while narrowly beating Cleveland after the Browns missed a long game-tying field goal at the end of the game last week. They outgained the Rams by 168 yards, and the Browns by 115. Neither of those games should’ve been as close as they ended up being. Against the Lions’ poor defense and 26th ranked red zone defense, they can’t help but convert more of those yards into points while severely limiting any offensive success on the part of the Lions. All we need is an average amount of luck and an average amount of effort from these two teams for the Redskins to cruise to a 14 point victory.
Final Score Projection: Redskins 27 – Lions 13
The Redskins have been dealing with a few injuries to their defense, but they are injuries they’ve been dealing with the entire season, so their stats are fairly indicative of the level of play they’ll be capable of in this game. The Lions had a couple of injuries to their offensive line a couple of games ago, but as of last week were starting the same week #1 line with the exception of Damion Cook taking over the starting LG position from 10 year man Edwin Mulitalo. The Redskins offensive line has been healthy this season (as opposed to the disastrous early season injuries they suffered last year), with the only shake up being Jon Jansen starting at RG the last few weeks instead of Stephen Heyer, though both players are rated fairly equally, if I’m not mistaken.
I’ll dispense with the gory match up disadvantages for the Lions in this game, and head straight to the numbers. Redskins’ #2 run offense vs. Lions’ #30 run defense. Redskins’ #18 pass offense vs. Lions’ #32 pass defense. Lions’ #20 run offense vs. Redskins’ #7 run defense. Lions’ #24 pass offense vs. Redskins’ #4 pass defense.
I think the Redskins will be plenty motivated to maintain a healthy lead in this game, as they’ve seriously underachieved in turning their offensive yards into points the last two weeks, letting the Rams hang around and beat them at the buzzer, while narrowly beating Cleveland after the Browns missed a long game-tying field goal at the end of the game last week. They outgained the Rams by 168 yards, and the Browns by 115. Neither of those games should’ve been as close as they ended up being. Against the Lions’ poor defense and 26th ranked red zone defense, they can’t help but convert more of those yards into points while severely limiting any offensive success on the part of the Lions. All we need is an average amount of luck and an average amount of effort from these two teams for the Redskins to cruise to a 14 point victory.
Final Score Projection: Redskins 27 – Lions 13
Rams @ Patriots
It looks the inflated Patriots’ point spreads won’t be abating anytime soon, as the whole football loving nation saw them pulverize a Broncos squad that grew more injured and butterfingered as the game progressed. Honestly, the Broncos lost about 1/3 of their starting defense, including both their corners, before the game was over. While Cassel struggled to complete anything other than wide receiver screens early in the game, he was actually able to complete a few passes that were thrown more north to south than east to west after the Baileys (Champ and Boss – with those names you’d think they’d be brothers) and Bly were on the sidelines. When, not if, Cassel’s services are no longer required by an NFL team, he’d be wise to look for work in the Canadian league where they’ve got those extra wide fields, as opposed to the Arena league where’s it all about throwing it downfield. With the exception of one long ball to Moss in the game at SF, Cassel mostly panics, scrambles, and gets sacked when the play call doesn’t involve a throw made within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. I can only hope the Rams are prepared for those wide receiver screens…
I mean, GOOD GRIEF, take an already bad defense, put them in a short bus and have them crash into a cement culvert, put them back on the field and have them play another half of football – that’s basically what the Patriot offense was playing against last week. ANY quarterback can play okay with a huge lead, look no further than Kerry Collins for proof of that. If Kerry had been suiting up for the Lions this season I don’t think he’d be seen as the middle-aged Messiah some may view him as now. It was the perfect storm of injuries and turnovers that made the Patriots look like a legitimate contender and worthy of being 7 point home favorites versus the Rams this week.
Well, the numbers aren’t buying it, because the numbers have this game as pretty darn near a pick, actually favoring the Rams in an upset. The Patriots lost another RB, hard-running Sammy Morris, and are down to who…third down specialist Kevin Faulk now? That’s fine, he’ll still probably have as much success as Sammy because the Patriots have been run blocking pretty well since realizing that they need to in order to win games without Brady. The one significant concern with the Rams coming into this game is the status of Stephen Jackson’s injured thigh. He barely saw the practice field this week, but odds are he’s being saved and protected to play in this game, in spite of coach Haslett’s assertion that Jackson is 50/50 to take the field. The Rams’ run defense has been pretty awful this year, ranking 29th by my systems, so the Patriots should have the advantage in the rushing match ups this game, regardless of who gets the touches for them.
In the passing game we’ve got Pro Bowl caliber (at times) Marc Bulger versus the aforementioned clipboard carrying caliber Cassel. The Rams have been thin at WR all year, and so have been relying heavily on veteran Tory Holt and emerging rookie Donnie Avery. The Patriots, of course, have a fantastic duo in Randy Moss and Wes Welker, the most dangerous 1, 2 punch in wide receiver screens in the league, lol. The Patriots’ pass defense has been a little better than the Rams’ this year (20th versus 24th ranked), but will now be without wily (read dirty) old-timer Rodney Harrison at safety. I have the Rams projected at being 1 yard better per pass plays, averaging 5.7 per versus the Patriots’ 4.7. Against a non-existent Bronco defense Cassel still only managed 4.9 yards per pass play.
All told, it looks like the Rams, who’ve shown some heart and improvement since sacking Linnehan for Haslett, will be able to hang around in this game, and may even steal one on the road like they did 2 weeks ago versus the Redskins, as the Patriots are an inferior team to the Redskins in almost every facet of the game.
Final Score Prediction: Rams 21 -- Patriots 20
I mean, GOOD GRIEF, take an already bad defense, put them in a short bus and have them crash into a cement culvert, put them back on the field and have them play another half of football – that’s basically what the Patriot offense was playing against last week. ANY quarterback can play okay with a huge lead, look no further than Kerry Collins for proof of that. If Kerry had been suiting up for the Lions this season I don’t think he’d be seen as the middle-aged Messiah some may view him as now. It was the perfect storm of injuries and turnovers that made the Patriots look like a legitimate contender and worthy of being 7 point home favorites versus the Rams this week.
Well, the numbers aren’t buying it, because the numbers have this game as pretty darn near a pick, actually favoring the Rams in an upset. The Patriots lost another RB, hard-running Sammy Morris, and are down to who…third down specialist Kevin Faulk now? That’s fine, he’ll still probably have as much success as Sammy because the Patriots have been run blocking pretty well since realizing that they need to in order to win games without Brady. The one significant concern with the Rams coming into this game is the status of Stephen Jackson’s injured thigh. He barely saw the practice field this week, but odds are he’s being saved and protected to play in this game, in spite of coach Haslett’s assertion that Jackson is 50/50 to take the field. The Rams’ run defense has been pretty awful this year, ranking 29th by my systems, so the Patriots should have the advantage in the rushing match ups this game, regardless of who gets the touches for them.
In the passing game we’ve got Pro Bowl caliber (at times) Marc Bulger versus the aforementioned clipboard carrying caliber Cassel. The Rams have been thin at WR all year, and so have been relying heavily on veteran Tory Holt and emerging rookie Donnie Avery. The Patriots, of course, have a fantastic duo in Randy Moss and Wes Welker, the most dangerous 1, 2 punch in wide receiver screens in the league, lol. The Patriots’ pass defense has been a little better than the Rams’ this year (20th versus 24th ranked), but will now be without wily (read dirty) old-timer Rodney Harrison at safety. I have the Rams projected at being 1 yard better per pass plays, averaging 5.7 per versus the Patriots’ 4.7. Against a non-existent Bronco defense Cassel still only managed 4.9 yards per pass play.
All told, it looks like the Rams, who’ve shown some heart and improvement since sacking Linnehan for Haslett, will be able to hang around in this game, and may even steal one on the road like they did 2 weeks ago versus the Redskins, as the Patriots are an inferior team to the Redskins in almost every facet of the game.
Final Score Prediction: Rams 21 -- Patriots 20
Falcons @ Eagles
The Falcons, with their new star running back, Michael Turner, and their new rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan, have become a bit of a sexy team in this 2008 season. Sharps are more interested in cash than sex, however, and the opening line of Eagles -7.5 rose to -9 over the course of a day, though a small bit of the betting furor seemed to coincide with the announcement that Brian Westbrook would be back in the lineup for the Eagles. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a team with a top 10 passing game and a bottom 10 running game experience so much line fluctuation based on the playing status of a running back before, as the Eagles’ pointspreads this year have seemingly ballooned and bombed based on Brian’s status. It’s comical, and perhaps a bit head-scratching, to see that the only time the Eagles’ run game has averaged more yards per carry than their opponent’s normally allow is in the two games that Westbrook didn’t play this season. In the two games without Westbrook the Eagles were +0.9 and +0.8 yards per carry better than their opponent’s average, while with Westbrook starting the best they managed was -0.1 compared to the opponent’s average, and have averaged -0.8 in his four starts (though he didn’t finish at least one of those games he started). Some of this correlation is due to Shawn Andrews’ injury at RG. Still, of the 4 games he didn’t play, 2 were good rushing games without Westbrook, and 2 poor rushing games with Westbrook.
The Eagles’ run defense started off the season in dominating fashion, but has been steadily backsliding in recent weeks. Whether the bye week helps them regain defensive form versus the #3 ranked Atlanta rush offense remains to be seen. The Eagles will want to minimize the Falcons’ running success by playing a fairly up tempo offense in an effort to build a lead that will force the Falcons to pass more often in the second half, where Philly’s aggressive blitz schemes can force the rookie Ryan into mistakes. Philly has a dangerous defense when leading a game late, as evidenced by the turnovers and scores they collected versus the 49ers in the last few minutes of their last game. Philly is more than capable of building a lead with the sizeable advantage they have with the passing matchups, where their 8th rated pass offense faces the Falcons’ 28th rated pass defense. The Eagles can really light it up versus sub-par defenses, they’ve scored 37 or more points in 3 of their 6 games so far this year. They’ve been able do this without the services of WR Kevin Curtis, who returns to the lineup this week, and Reggie Brown (played in one game so far this year), who looks to be recovering well enough from a groin injury to play this week. Though the Eagles have seen an offensive downturn since losing RG Shawn Andrews to a back injury, they’ll have more offensive weapons on the field this week than they’ve seen all year. If the Eagles score the 37 points they look primed to do this week, it’ll be hard for the Falcons to score the 28 points necessary to push the current spread, let alone cover it, as only Dallas has scored more than 26 points versus the Eagles this year, and the Eagles have only allowed an average of 10.7 points in their 3 home games this year. I have the Eagles scoring less than 37 this week, but wouldn’t be at all surprised if they did. I think the Falcons will get within sniffing distance of 20 points, but will not scratch it.
Matt Ryan is no doubt improving and is already looking like a career starter in this league only 6 games into his NFL career. Still, this game will be a very tough test for him and odds are he won’t get the defensive help necessary to cover this number by just managing the game. It’s still a road rookie with a vastly inferior defense versus Donovan McNabb when it’s all said and done.
Final Score Projection: Falcons 17 – Eagles 31
The Eagles’ run defense started off the season in dominating fashion, but has been steadily backsliding in recent weeks. Whether the bye week helps them regain defensive form versus the #3 ranked Atlanta rush offense remains to be seen. The Eagles will want to minimize the Falcons’ running success by playing a fairly up tempo offense in an effort to build a lead that will force the Falcons to pass more often in the second half, where Philly’s aggressive blitz schemes can force the rookie Ryan into mistakes. Philly has a dangerous defense when leading a game late, as evidenced by the turnovers and scores they collected versus the 49ers in the last few minutes of their last game. Philly is more than capable of building a lead with the sizeable advantage they have with the passing matchups, where their 8th rated pass offense faces the Falcons’ 28th rated pass defense. The Eagles can really light it up versus sub-par defenses, they’ve scored 37 or more points in 3 of their 6 games so far this year. They’ve been able do this without the services of WR Kevin Curtis, who returns to the lineup this week, and Reggie Brown (played in one game so far this year), who looks to be recovering well enough from a groin injury to play this week. Though the Eagles have seen an offensive downturn since losing RG Shawn Andrews to a back injury, they’ll have more offensive weapons on the field this week than they’ve seen all year. If the Eagles score the 37 points they look primed to do this week, it’ll be hard for the Falcons to score the 28 points necessary to push the current spread, let alone cover it, as only Dallas has scored more than 26 points versus the Eagles this year, and the Eagles have only allowed an average of 10.7 points in their 3 home games this year. I have the Eagles scoring less than 37 this week, but wouldn’t be at all surprised if they did. I think the Falcons will get within sniffing distance of 20 points, but will not scratch it.
Matt Ryan is no doubt improving and is already looking like a career starter in this league only 6 games into his NFL career. Still, this game will be a very tough test for him and odds are he won’t get the defensive help necessary to cover this number by just managing the game. It’s still a road rookie with a vastly inferior defense versus Donovan McNabb when it’s all said and done.
Final Score Projection: Falcons 17 – Eagles 31
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Week #8 Recommended Plays & Line Savings
UPDATED 10/26/2008 1:55 AM EST.
I've removed the line savings for convenience of viewing for the next day, but will post my entire card with the line savings on the public blog after the MNF game.
I did add a 2/3rd Unit play on BAL/OAK Over 35.5 and DAL/TB Over 40 (available at 5Dimes right now). I also added 2 1/3rd Unit parlays on the two games where I showed strong value on both the side and total. I also bought back the CLE +6.5 play, and will lose almost a quarter unit of juice if CLE covers, otherwise even with the extra amount wagered on JAC -6.5. Depending on how the lines are looking tomorrow I may decide to for some full or partial middles on a couple of plays.
I'm going to call the final tally here at 6:45 pm EST, which ended up being +20.5 points saved on all posted straight bets.
Some of the plays listed here are no longer recommended versus current lines (esp. CLE), so always reference the Lines and Values table for the best idea of the currently most recommended plays.
Week #8 Lines & Values Table
***UPDATED Sunday 12:59 pm EST***
I'm also going to keep a record of how the green and yellow plays fair versus the current Saturday lines posted here(not going to attempt to do so versus the sometimes wildly changing, steaming closing lines) grading the green plays as 1 Unit and the yellow plays as 2/3rds of a Unit.
I just added what will probably be the last (potentially) major modifier to my linesmaking in a while, which has tightened up the lines even further. In a nutshell, it's a rescoring of the offensive and defensive performances based on the injury/starting personnel statuses of the opponent for each game played. For example, any team that played the Vikings while the Vikes had Tarvaris Jackson starting at QB now has a deduction to their pass defense numbers for that game equal to the difference between the Vikings' pass offense numbers when starting either Jackson or Frerotte. Final injury updates will be applied late Friday evening, so the final lines for the week will be available either late Friday or Saturday morning.
The two plays most affected by this update are the Dolphins and Colts, as I'm now showing very slight value on both the Bills and Titans. No harm done on the Dolphins play as the line has moved in our favor on that one, so I'm probably going to look for the best spot to get off of the play with a bet on the Bills and shoot for the little middle with the cheapest juice possible. Not much line movement on the Colts play yet, so that's a wait and see situation where I'll be looking to bet the Titans -4 at small juice or at -3.5 if it becomes available for reasonable juice. Worst case scenario is a bet on the Titans at -4, eating the 1/10th unit vig.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
San Diego and New Orleans in London
The Chargers have twice been pummeled when traveling to the East coast for the 1 pm games this year, both times occurring within the last 3 weeks. What will happen to them when they have to move their clocks up 5 more hours from East coast time for the game in London this week? If you believe in travel fatigue, I’m not sure an NFL team has ever faced more coming into a game than the Chargers this week. It’s not like they were just unfortunate in their prior East coast losses either, they were pretty soundly beaten.
The Saints were pretty soundly beaten when looking at the scoreboard for last week’s game at Carolina. The final score doesn’t tell the real story, though, as the Saints actually outgained the Panthers in total yards. The Saints had two turnovers, while the Panthers had known. If there was unbalanced distribution of turnovers in a game this last week, believe me, I was on the wrong side of it, lol. So last week, both teams gained 5.5 yards per play, though the Saints did it versus an overall tougher Carolina defense.
Jeremey Shockey, the red neck, blue talking over-rated TE for the Saints, reaggravated the hernia injury that had kept him out of several games. He says he’s currently feeling better and did travel with the team to London, though his status is still “?”. Reggie Bush is out for 3-4 weeks, and that’s an injury with actual negative repercussions for the Saints (as Billy Miller and the somewhat gimpy Mark Campbell are both adequate replacements for Shock Jock), as he’s returned 3 punts for touchdowns and has big play capability either running or catching the ball on offense.
The Chargers’ have been dealing with recent injuries in their wide receiving and linebacker corps, and it looks like those injuries will carry over into this game.
Marques Colston did return from injury for the Saints last week, but didn’t catch any balls. His lack of production was attributed to being out of sync with the offense after his long injury absence.
Neither team is particularly adept at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, though the Chargers are 3 rankings worse at #25. They had no sacks and were not even credited with a quarterback hurry in last week’s loss at Buffalo. I don’t need to tell you what kind of strain their defense is going to be under if they can’t get pressure on Drew Brees, who is already one of the least sacked quarterbacks in football, ranking #2 in sacks allowed per passing plays (my rankings always have #1 as being the most favorable in a category, so the Saints #2 ranking in sacks allowed per passing plays means they allow the second least). The Saints still have the #1 ranked passing game in football, while the Chargers are #3. The gap is wider than the actual rankings though, and I project the Saints to get about one more yard per passing play than the Chargers.
The Chargers’ run game production has dropped markedly this year in no small part due to LT’s troubled toe. Take away a 31 yard reverse by Vincent Jackson last week and you’re left with the running backs only gaining 41 yards via the rush. The Saints run game is where it typically is, near the bottom of the rankings. The Chargers will have the advantage in the run game, but it won’t be enough to counter their disadvantage in the passing game.
The Saints released their punter after last weeks’ loss, and signed Ben Graham to fill his shoes. The Saints’ kicking and punting has been dreadful this year, with both kicker Gramatica and punter Weatherford no longer active in their duties.
This game looks to be settled by the passing match ups, with Drew Brees more capable of success with his current targets than Phillip Rivers is with his.
Final Score Projection: Chargers 23 – Saints 26
Recommend Play: Saints +3
I am showing some value on the Over, but given the forecast of 20+ mph winds with slight precipitation and fairly high humidity, I’d pass on the total, in spite of the air show this game may turn into. If the wind forecast decreases, the Over becomes playable. If the precipitation forecast increases, look out, as the Giants and Dolphins played a very low-scoring game on a muddy natural grass field in London last year.
The Saints were pretty soundly beaten when looking at the scoreboard for last week’s game at Carolina. The final score doesn’t tell the real story, though, as the Saints actually outgained the Panthers in total yards. The Saints had two turnovers, while the Panthers had known. If there was unbalanced distribution of turnovers in a game this last week, believe me, I was on the wrong side of it, lol. So last week, both teams gained 5.5 yards per play, though the Saints did it versus an overall tougher Carolina defense.
Jeremey Shockey, the red neck, blue talking over-rated TE for the Saints, reaggravated the hernia injury that had kept him out of several games. He says he’s currently feeling better and did travel with the team to London, though his status is still “?”. Reggie Bush is out for 3-4 weeks, and that’s an injury with actual negative repercussions for the Saints (as Billy Miller and the somewhat gimpy Mark Campbell are both adequate replacements for Shock Jock), as he’s returned 3 punts for touchdowns and has big play capability either running or catching the ball on offense.
The Chargers’ have been dealing with recent injuries in their wide receiving and linebacker corps, and it looks like those injuries will carry over into this game.
Marques Colston did return from injury for the Saints last week, but didn’t catch any balls. His lack of production was attributed to being out of sync with the offense after his long injury absence.
Neither team is particularly adept at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, though the Chargers are 3 rankings worse at #25. They had no sacks and were not even credited with a quarterback hurry in last week’s loss at Buffalo. I don’t need to tell you what kind of strain their defense is going to be under if they can’t get pressure on Drew Brees, who is already one of the least sacked quarterbacks in football, ranking #2 in sacks allowed per passing plays (my rankings always have #1 as being the most favorable in a category, so the Saints #2 ranking in sacks allowed per passing plays means they allow the second least). The Saints still have the #1 ranked passing game in football, while the Chargers are #3. The gap is wider than the actual rankings though, and I project the Saints to get about one more yard per passing play than the Chargers.
The Chargers’ run game production has dropped markedly this year in no small part due to LT’s troubled toe. Take away a 31 yard reverse by Vincent Jackson last week and you’re left with the running backs only gaining 41 yards via the rush. The Saints run game is where it typically is, near the bottom of the rankings. The Chargers will have the advantage in the run game, but it won’t be enough to counter their disadvantage in the passing game.
The Saints released their punter after last weeks’ loss, and signed Ben Graham to fill his shoes. The Saints’ kicking and punting has been dreadful this year, with both kicker Gramatica and punter Weatherford no longer active in their duties.
This game looks to be settled by the passing match ups, with Drew Brees more capable of success with his current targets than Phillip Rivers is with his.
Final Score Projection: Chargers 23 – Saints 26
Recommend Play: Saints +3
I am showing some value on the Over, but given the forecast of 20+ mph winds with slight precipitation and fairly high humidity, I’d pass on the total, in spite of the air show this game may turn into. If the wind forecast decreases, the Over becomes playable. If the precipitation forecast increases, look out, as the Giants and Dolphins played a very low-scoring game on a muddy natural grass field in London last year.
Monday, October 20, 2008
MNF Props Week #7
Adding for 1 Unit:
Denver 1st to make a First Down (-135)
This is almost identical to the scenario in the Saints/Vikings game 2 weeks ago where the Saints were highly likely to get the ball first in the game, which they did, and made a First down two plays into the game. The line on this play for the Saints went up to -180 before kickoff.
Over 3 Field Goals (-115 BookMaker -- the same play is -140 at 5Dimes...? lol)
Lots of offense, and two accurate kickers with strong legs.
1/2 Unit:
NE to Make Shortest FG (-120)
The Patriots have a worse red zone offense and defense so far this year.
Denver to score 1st (+115 5Dimes)
Kind of curious that 5Dimes still has this soft of a line when you consider that Denver will almost certainly start the game with the ball and have taken the first possession for a score many times this season (if memory serves).
BookMaker has the line for this play at -105, by comparison.
Went 5 for 5 on MNF props 2 weeks ago, so let's see if lightening strikes twice.
I also like the Under 9.5 punts, but the juice on that is -150 right now, which is rather unappetizing. Still probably has value, though, I might look into it. Okay -- just checked. Both of these teams have 1 game each this year that had more than 9 punts in it. Considering how weak both defenses are the line for this play should be closer to -200.
1/2 Unit: Under 9.5 Punts (-150)
Denver 1st to make a First Down (-135)
This is almost identical to the scenario in the Saints/Vikings game 2 weeks ago where the Saints were highly likely to get the ball first in the game, which they did, and made a First down two plays into the game. The line on this play for the Saints went up to -180 before kickoff.
Over 3 Field Goals (-115 BookMaker -- the same play is -140 at 5Dimes...? lol)
Lots of offense, and two accurate kickers with strong legs.
1/2 Unit:
NE to Make Shortest FG (-120)
The Patriots have a worse red zone offense and defense so far this year.
Denver to score 1st (+115 5Dimes)
Kind of curious that 5Dimes still has this soft of a line when you consider that Denver will almost certainly start the game with the ball and have taken the first possession for a score many times this season (if memory serves).
BookMaker has the line for this play at -105, by comparison.
Went 5 for 5 on MNF props 2 weeks ago, so let's see if lightening strikes twice.
I also like the Under 9.5 punts, but the juice on that is -150 right now, which is rather unappetizing. Still probably has value, though, I might look into it. Okay -- just checked. Both of these teams have 1 game each this year that had more than 9 punts in it. Considering how weak both defenses are the line for this play should be closer to -200.
1/2 Unit: Under 9.5 Punts (-150)
Monday Night Football -- Knock on Wood
***Adding Denver to score 1st (+115 5Dimes) for a 1/2 Unit.***
I've been doing pretty well on the Sunday night games this year (see last night), but have had a real bad luck half in many of the Monday Nighters lately. Last week the MNF game alone turned what had been a mildly winning week into my first losing week since week #1. I find myself in the same spot tonight, entering the game with a small profit for the week, looking to close out a teaser with one leg left to cash, and bets on the road team and the total. Last week I had the fav and the Under, this week I have the dog and the Over. So in spite of having Denver as my favorite side of the week, I'm wondering if the MNF jinx will rear it's ugly head again tonight.
Still, there is reason for optimism (as there is for all plays one makes, right?). The Patriots, by my ratings, actually have a worse pass defense than the Broncos. The Broncos still have the 7th best passing game in the league, they've just suffered from INTs and fumbles deep in enemy territory the last few games. The Patriots, with Clipboard Cassel at the helm, have the 27th best passing game in the league.
The Bronocs also have the 7th best running game (one more 7 and I've hit the jackpot -- that's gotta' be a jinx buster!). The Patriots run game? 23rd best. The Broncos have been pretty awful stopping the run, ranking 30th, though the Patriots haven't been a whole lot better coming in at 24th. Selvin Young, RB for the Broncos, is still "?" as far as I know, but Pittman had a great game last week filling in the injured Young. Denver has traditionally done pretty well with any running back behind the stellar offensive line run schemes they employ.
So the Broncos have a clear edge in the passing game, and a small edge in the running game. Is the Bellichick magic at home enough to overcome the fundamental disadvantages the Patriots have in this game? Recent history says no, as Shanahan has had very good success versus Bill B. in this century.
Final Score Projection: Broncos 30 -- Patriots 21
Recommended Plays:
1 Unit:
Broncos +3
1/2 Unit:
Broncos ML
Broncos ML 1st Q.
(I'd rather take the plus juice on the 1st Q. ML play than the -150 juice on the Broncos +0.5 1st Q. play. It's going to be a pretty high scoring game, so less likely to be tied after the 1st Q. The Patriots have started deferring the coin toss since Brady's injury, while the Broncos have elected to receive all 3 times they've won the toss.)
Broncos +1 1st Half (-105 BookMaker)
I've been doing pretty well on the Sunday night games this year (see last night), but have had a real bad luck half in many of the Monday Nighters lately. Last week the MNF game alone turned what had been a mildly winning week into my first losing week since week #1. I find myself in the same spot tonight, entering the game with a small profit for the week, looking to close out a teaser with one leg left to cash, and bets on the road team and the total. Last week I had the fav and the Under, this week I have the dog and the Over. So in spite of having Denver as my favorite side of the week, I'm wondering if the MNF jinx will rear it's ugly head again tonight.
Still, there is reason for optimism (as there is for all plays one makes, right?). The Patriots, by my ratings, actually have a worse pass defense than the Broncos. The Broncos still have the 7th best passing game in the league, they've just suffered from INTs and fumbles deep in enemy territory the last few games. The Patriots, with Clipboard Cassel at the helm, have the 27th best passing game in the league.
The Bronocs also have the 7th best running game (one more 7 and I've hit the jackpot -- that's gotta' be a jinx buster!). The Patriots run game? 23rd best. The Broncos have been pretty awful stopping the run, ranking 30th, though the Patriots haven't been a whole lot better coming in at 24th. Selvin Young, RB for the Broncos, is still "?" as far as I know, but Pittman had a great game last week filling in the injured Young. Denver has traditionally done pretty well with any running back behind the stellar offensive line run schemes they employ.
So the Broncos have a clear edge in the passing game, and a small edge in the running game. Is the Bellichick magic at home enough to overcome the fundamental disadvantages the Patriots have in this game? Recent history says no, as Shanahan has had very good success versus Bill B. in this century.
Final Score Projection: Broncos 30 -- Patriots 21
Recommended Plays:
1 Unit:
Broncos +3
1/2 Unit:
Broncos ML
Broncos ML 1st Q.
(I'd rather take the plus juice on the 1st Q. ML play than the -150 juice on the Broncos +0.5 1st Q. play. It's going to be a pretty high scoring game, so less likely to be tied after the 1st Q. The Patriots have started deferring the coin toss since Brady's injury, while the Broncos have elected to receive all 3 times they've won the toss.)
Broncos +1 1st Half (-105 BookMaker)
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Sunday Wrap -- Winning with Junk
Sigh, another late touchdown to give us a push on the TB -10 play, and give me a crummy ATS record for thepredictiontracker.com this week, lol. Could not get the breaks on the sides today at all, it was a backdoored bonanza. Still, we hustled and turned a profit of +0.85 Units for the day as we killed every other play on the SNF game, and you subscribers alone reaped the benefit of a little over 2 Units won on second half plays today. Listen to all that "touty" sounding talk, lol.
Went 3 for 4 on the big first half favorites (I already groused about how Cincy just barely cost me 4 for 4 on those today). 1 of 2 on 1st half parlays, which turns a profit. The Saints had the ball with 2 chances to score a touchdown in the 2nd Q. to make it 2 for 2 on the parlays, but yeah, we know how the Saints did today.
Team Totals went a perfect 2 for 2 with winners on the Vikings Over and the Seahawks Under.
Plus money on teasers going 2-1.
Totals ended up in the black after hitting the Under in the SNF game.
But the sides? Oh the sides; a dismal -6.9 Units today, which leaves us with a small profit of +0.85 Units on the day. Still, we've got a leg up heading into the MNF game only needing Denver +15 to cash the lone Monster teaser of the week, the orphaned play I made when I had BAL covering the spread originally. Better to be lucky than good sometimes, lol.
The money continues to come in on Denver, who opened at +3.5 and are currently +3 (-115 range of vig). The Over has predictably shot up a couple of points as well, so feeling pretty good about the Over 46 heading into the game tomorrow.
Went 3 for 4 on the big first half favorites (I already groused about how Cincy just barely cost me 4 for 4 on those today). 1 of 2 on 1st half parlays, which turns a profit. The Saints had the ball with 2 chances to score a touchdown in the 2nd Q. to make it 2 for 2 on the parlays, but yeah, we know how the Saints did today.
Team Totals went a perfect 2 for 2 with winners on the Vikings Over and the Seahawks Under.
Plus money on teasers going 2-1.
Totals ended up in the black after hitting the Under in the SNF game.
But the sides? Oh the sides; a dismal -6.9 Units today, which leaves us with a small profit of +0.85 Units on the day. Still, we've got a leg up heading into the MNF game only needing Denver +15 to cash the lone Monster teaser of the week, the orphaned play I made when I had BAL covering the spread originally. Better to be lucky than good sometimes, lol.
The money continues to come in on Denver, who opened at +3.5 and are currently +3 (-115 range of vig). The Over has predictably shot up a couple of points as well, so feeling pretty good about the Over 46 heading into the game tomorrow.
I'm going to vent, it's what I do, lol.
Boy, seems like most late 4th quarter scores were really unhelpful today, barring the late flurry in KC that gave us the Over. It was really kind of a crappy luck day over all, so time for a mini-rant/breakdown.
The Redskins outgained the Browns 351 to 236 yards, yet only won by 3 as a late Browns’ score killed the Redskins’ side, and the subsequent successful 2 point conversion killed the 2nd half play by one point. Gawd.
The Lions throw a 94-yard touchdown pass (and another successful 2 point conversion to kill a 2nd half play) en route to 11 unanswered 4th quarter points. I personally had the Texans -7 to settle for the disappointing push (hope you had -7 as well – that number was available for near an entire day).
The Vikings outgained the Bears by 102 yards…and lost by 7 points.
The Saints outgained the Panthers by a few yards…and lost 7-30. How is that possible, lol. And how is it possible the Saints couldn’t put at least another touchdown on the board to push the Over bet.
The Dolphins outgained the Ravens by 2 yards…and lost 13-27. Thank you pick 6.
Dallas meaningless touchdown late in the 4th to kill an Under.
Indy converts 4th downs near the very end of game to eventually get a touchdown that pushes my Under (though it was probably a loss for most others unless you got the 48 early).
The 49ers were only outgained by 20 yards, yet lost by 12 points.
The Bengals were kind enough to score their only touchdown of the game with less than a minute left in the first half to kill the PIT -6 1st half bet. The Steelers were kind enough to score the majority of their points in the second half, ensuring that the first half bet was a loser as well as the Unders for the game.
Missed the Over in SD/BUF when Rivers throws an interception in the end zone. Multiple chances for that last touchdown to push the Over, but no dice.
Sure, there may have been a couple of breaks that helped with some of the plays somewhere along the way, but other than the late points in KC, nothing significant comes to mind, lol. Last week I felt pretty snake bit as well. Oh well, the football Gods showed me a pretty good time in weeks 2-5, and they seem dead set on getting a little, a verrrrry little bit back of what was made earlier in the season.
Still, if things continue to follow the script in the TB/SEA game (17-0 2 minutes left in 1st half), we’ll still be looking at being pretty near even for the week, which ain’t bad considering all of the above!
The Redskins outgained the Browns 351 to 236 yards, yet only won by 3 as a late Browns’ score killed the Redskins’ side, and the subsequent successful 2 point conversion killed the 2nd half play by one point. Gawd.
The Lions throw a 94-yard touchdown pass (and another successful 2 point conversion to kill a 2nd half play) en route to 11 unanswered 4th quarter points. I personally had the Texans -7 to settle for the disappointing push (hope you had -7 as well – that number was available for near an entire day).
The Vikings outgained the Bears by 102 yards…and lost by 7 points.
The Saints outgained the Panthers by a few yards…and lost 7-30. How is that possible, lol. And how is it possible the Saints couldn’t put at least another touchdown on the board to push the Over bet.
The Dolphins outgained the Ravens by 2 yards…and lost 13-27. Thank you pick 6.
Dallas meaningless touchdown late in the 4th to kill an Under.
Indy converts 4th downs near the very end of game to eventually get a touchdown that pushes my Under (though it was probably a loss for most others unless you got the 48 early).
The 49ers were only outgained by 20 yards, yet lost by 12 points.
The Bengals were kind enough to score their only touchdown of the game with less than a minute left in the first half to kill the PIT -6 1st half bet. The Steelers were kind enough to score the majority of their points in the second half, ensuring that the first half bet was a loser as well as the Unders for the game.
Missed the Over in SD/BUF when Rivers throws an interception in the end zone. Multiple chances for that last touchdown to push the Over, but no dice.
Sure, there may have been a couple of breaks that helped with some of the plays somewhere along the way, but other than the late points in KC, nothing significant comes to mind, lol. Last week I felt pretty snake bit as well. Oh well, the football Gods showed me a pretty good time in weeks 2-5, and they seem dead set on getting a little, a verrrrry little bit back of what was made earlier in the season.
Still, if things continue to follow the script in the TB/SEA game (17-0 2 minutes left in 1st half), we’ll still be looking at being pretty near even for the week, which ain’t bad considering all of the above!
Week #8 Early Lines
BAL -6.8/37.1
NO -6.2/49.8 (In London, so I'm a little leery of the Over in spite of playing it. Reggie Bush out as well.)
NYJ -17.2/40.4
MIA +0.7/49.2
DAL +1/43.4
PHI -14.8/50.9
NE +1.5/40.2
CAR -2.4/43
DET +15/40
JAC -7.6/42.9
PIT -6.5/40.1
HOU -5/43.5
TEN -0.7/44.4
NO -6.2/49.8 (In London, so I'm a little leery of the Over in spite of playing it. Reggie Bush out as well.)
NYJ -17.2/40.4
MIA +0.7/49.2
DAL +1/43.4
PHI -14.8/50.9
NE +1.5/40.2
CAR -2.4/43
DET +15/40
JAC -7.6/42.9
PIT -6.5/40.1
HOU -5/43.5
TEN -0.7/44.4
Week #8 Plays
1 Unit:
As I haven't shown any value on the Colts for most of the week now with my lines, I'm getting off of the ATS play with a 1 Unit bet on the Titans -4(+102 Matchbook), which after the commission fee ends up being a juice free way to get off of the the play. The way my luck has been running on Monday night, it's probably a good thing, lol. I'll let the ML play on the Colts ride.
MIA/BUF OVER 40
ARI +4.5 (JUST PUT IN AN UPDATE - ONLY SLIM VALUE ON ARI NOW)
WAS -8
WAS -7 (-120 BOUGHT THE HOOK -- PLAYING FOR ANOTHER UNIT)
WAS/DET UNDER 44
WAS/DET UNDER 46 (For another Unit, no idea how in the hell this moved up to 46)
NYG/PIT UNDER 44
IND/TEN OVER 42 (41's available now, a rare mover in the wrong direction, lol. Worth a Unit at Over 41, 3/4th of a Unit at Over 42.)
NO +3.5
NO/SD OVER 46.5 (Went from 45 to 46.5 right as I was about to post!)
*** Weather forecast for London has 21 mph winds with 20% precip. and 70% humidity. I don't think the line is going to go any higher than the 47 it's available at now as a result. I'd probably wait and see how the weather develops if you haven't made this play. If you've made the play, it's a fingers crossed and hope that the weather doesn't turn out to be too windy play. You may even consider getting off of the play if you can find attractive juice or a 47.5. I'm going to continue to monitor the lines.
NO/SD Under 46 -- Late night buy back on the this total, which is showing signs of dropping more. I think people are counting on the field becoming a chewed up mess. Nothing to do but monitor the weather and lines and see if it's worth getting back on the Over or not later.
NO/SD Over 45 -- The weather looks to be dry (after morning rain turning to afternoon light rain) with winds under 10mph by the London 6pm kickoff, so if they keep the field covered during the day it should be in okay condition. Even with applying a 2 to 3 point deduction for the different grass type on the field leaves plenty of value on the Over, especially now that we're able to get on the fairly key number of 45. I only see this number creeping back up before gametime if the weather forecast holds.
PHI -7 (-120 bought the hook)
MIA +2 (very slim value now)
BUF -1 (-104 Matchbook)
PIT -2.5
NYJ/KC OVER 38 (Playable value at the opening 38, not enough on the current 39.5)
CIN +10
PHI -2/WAS -1.5 6 POINT TEASER
IND +4
SEA/SF Under 42.5
STL/NE Under 43.5
STL +7.5 (-120 bought the hook) ***Not surprisingly this number is starting to show up at +7.5 -115 at a couple of shops. Bettors are going to be in love with the Patriots this week after the drubbing of the Broncos on national tv. That's cool, I'm still calling for the outright Rams win, lol.
SF -5.5 (1/2) & SF -5 (1/2) (I'd downgrade SF to a 3/4 unit play now.)
PHI -6 1ST HALF
WAS -4.5 1ST HALF (-115)
BAL -0.5/WAS -1.5 6 POINT TEASER
TB +8/WAS -1.5 6 POINT TEASER
ATL/PHI Over 45
3/4 Unit:
CLE +6.5 (moved off of +7 before I could post it earlier--with small update I'd pass on this one now, very slim value.) ***Actually favor JAC by a small margin now***
CLE/JAC OVER 40.5 (Value at the opening number, but not now at 41.5)
NYJ -12
As you can see from my original lines which I posted last night, I'm showing excellent value on the Jets at home this week versus the pathetic Chiefs. The line of 11, and then 11.5 are not key numbers, so I waited to see if there was any chance that the line would drop down to 10.5 to buy down to 10. No such luck. In spite of the poor performance of heavy chalk lately, it looks like the early money is coming in on the Chiefs' fade train.
HOU/CIN OVER 43.5 (I'd hang on to the play if already made, pass it if not.)
Currently 43.5 at BookMaker, 44 at most other places, it looks like. Probably worth a 1/2 Unit if you can only get 44. HOU right now is a team where you have to look for reasons to not bet the Over. My line is 46.6 right now.
TB ML (+110)
1/2 Unit:
PHI -6/OVER 23 1ST HALF PARLAY
Jets -7 1st Half (-115)
Colts ML +175
Chargers ML +145
Rams ML +290
I can't stress enough how badly Washington is going to murder Detroit next week! In the battle of the two murder capitols of the US the huge edge goes to THE capitol.
Ah, that's more like it. The WAS/DET O/U, which inexplicably shot up to 46 at BookMaker for a while, is back down to 44.5. I've seen some completely accidental/wrong lines hung on games early before, lol, but my best guess here is that the books were hit with the old bait and switch on this one -- a small flood of money early to push the Over up to 46 (past the fairly key 45) and then whammo, the real money moves in on the Under 46. I hope some of you got the Under at better than 45. This is one of my strongest plays of the year based on my lines. Detroit will struggle to do anything versus the Redskins' defense, and the Redskins are going to run the ball chewing the clock with a lead for most of this game, especially the second half, just like we saw in the SEA/TB game tonight.
As I haven't shown any value on the Colts for most of the week now with my lines, I'm getting off of the ATS play with a 1 Unit bet on the Titans -4(+102 Matchbook), which after the commission fee ends up being a juice free way to get off of the the play. The way my luck has been running on Monday night, it's probably a good thing, lol. I'll let the ML play on the Colts ride.
MIA/BUF OVER 40
ARI +4.5 (JUST PUT IN AN UPDATE - ONLY SLIM VALUE ON ARI NOW)
WAS -8
WAS -7 (-120 BOUGHT THE HOOK -- PLAYING FOR ANOTHER UNIT)
WAS/DET UNDER 44
WAS/DET UNDER 46 (For another Unit, no idea how in the hell this moved up to 46)
NYG/PIT UNDER 44
IND/TEN OVER 42 (41's available now, a rare mover in the wrong direction, lol. Worth a Unit at Over 41, 3/4th of a Unit at Over 42.)
NO +3.5
NO/SD OVER 46.5 (Went from 45 to 46.5 right as I was about to post!)
*** Weather forecast for London has 21 mph winds with 20% precip. and 70% humidity. I don't think the line is going to go any higher than the 47 it's available at now as a result. I'd probably wait and see how the weather develops if you haven't made this play. If you've made the play, it's a fingers crossed and hope that the weather doesn't turn out to be too windy play. You may even consider getting off of the play if you can find attractive juice or a 47.5. I'm going to continue to monitor the lines.
NO/SD Under 46 -- Late night buy back on the this total, which is showing signs of dropping more. I think people are counting on the field becoming a chewed up mess. Nothing to do but monitor the weather and lines and see if it's worth getting back on the Over or not later.
NO/SD Over 45 -- The weather looks to be dry (after morning rain turning to afternoon light rain) with winds under 10mph by the London 6pm kickoff, so if they keep the field covered during the day it should be in okay condition. Even with applying a 2 to 3 point deduction for the different grass type on the field leaves plenty of value on the Over, especially now that we're able to get on the fairly key number of 45. I only see this number creeping back up before gametime if the weather forecast holds.
PHI -7 (-120 bought the hook)
MIA +2 (very slim value now)
BUF -1 (-104 Matchbook)
PIT -2.5
NYJ/KC OVER 38 (Playable value at the opening 38, not enough on the current 39.5)
CIN +10
PHI -2/WAS -1.5 6 POINT TEASER
IND +4
SEA/SF Under 42.5
STL/NE Under 43.5
STL +7.5 (-120 bought the hook) ***Not surprisingly this number is starting to show up at +7.5 -115 at a couple of shops. Bettors are going to be in love with the Patriots this week after the drubbing of the Broncos on national tv. That's cool, I'm still calling for the outright Rams win, lol.
SF -5.5 (1/2) & SF -5 (1/2) (I'd downgrade SF to a 3/4 unit play now.)
PHI -6 1ST HALF
WAS -4.5 1ST HALF (-115)
BAL -0.5/WAS -1.5 6 POINT TEASER
TB +8/WAS -1.5 6 POINT TEASER
ATL/PHI Over 45
3/4 Unit:
CLE +6.5 (moved off of +7 before I could post it earlier--with small update I'd pass on this one now, very slim value.) ***Actually favor JAC by a small margin now***
CLE/JAC OVER 40.5 (Value at the opening number, but not now at 41.5)
NYJ -12
As you can see from my original lines which I posted last night, I'm showing excellent value on the Jets at home this week versus the pathetic Chiefs. The line of 11, and then 11.5 are not key numbers, so I waited to see if there was any chance that the line would drop down to 10.5 to buy down to 10. No such luck. In spite of the poor performance of heavy chalk lately, it looks like the early money is coming in on the Chiefs' fade train.
HOU/CIN OVER 43.5 (I'd hang on to the play if already made, pass it if not.)
Currently 43.5 at BookMaker, 44 at most other places, it looks like. Probably worth a 1/2 Unit if you can only get 44. HOU right now is a team where you have to look for reasons to not bet the Over. My line is 46.6 right now.
TB ML (+110)
1/2 Unit:
PHI -6/OVER 23 1ST HALF PARLAY
Jets -7 1st Half (-115)
Colts ML +175
Chargers ML +145
Rams ML +290
I can't stress enough how badly Washington is going to murder Detroit next week! In the battle of the two murder capitols of the US the huge edge goes to THE capitol.
Ah, that's more like it. The WAS/DET O/U, which inexplicably shot up to 46 at BookMaker for a while, is back down to 44.5. I've seen some completely accidental/wrong lines hung on games early before, lol, but my best guess here is that the books were hit with the old bait and switch on this one -- a small flood of money early to push the Over up to 46 (past the fairly key 45) and then whammo, the real money moves in on the Under 46. I hope some of you got the Under at better than 45. This is one of my strongest plays of the year based on my lines. Detroit will struggle to do anything versus the Redskins' defense, and the Redskins are going to run the ball chewing the clock with a lead for most of this game, especially the second half, just like we saw in the SEA/TB game tonight.
Halftime Plays Late Games, SNF, MNF
*** No plays for the second half of the MNF game. My line is NE -3, O/U 22.9.***
1 Unit:
TB/SEA UNDER 17.5
DET/HOU Under 21
3/4 Unit:
WAS -4
GB +4
1/2 Unit:
SEA +6 (+5.5 OKAY)
OAK +3
1 Unit:
TB/SEA UNDER 17.5
DET/HOU Under 21
3/4 Unit:
WAS -4
GB +4
1/2 Unit:
SEA +6 (+5.5 OKAY)
OAK +3
Halftime Plays Early Games
1/2 Unit:
KC +3
KC/Ten Over 17
CHI Pick
3/4 Unit:
STL +6.5
1 Unit:
BUF +1
MIA -3
Okay, +1.15ish on the first round of halftimes, depending on what juice you had. Good thing, as the regular plays were not so strong, though I do have a Monster teaser with just DEN +15 left and Houston -2.5 for another teaser. Houston scored on their first possession, which helps all the way around with the different plays.
KC +3
KC/Ten Over 17
CHI Pick
3/4 Unit:
STL +6.5
1 Unit:
BUF +1
MIA -3
Okay, +1.15ish on the first round of halftimes, depending on what juice you had. Good thing, as the regular plays were not so strong, though I do have a Monster teaser with just DEN +15 left and Houston -2.5 for another teaser. Houston scored on their first possession, which helps all the way around with the different plays.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Welcome...
...and congratulations on taking advantage of what I consider to be the best deal in the history of sports handicapping (in my biased opinion, lol)! I've earned my reputation through many years of hard work and continual success. But that's why you're here -- guess I'm preaching to the choir, lol. Though some of you have followed me for a while and enjoyed the bankroll benefits of doing so, it still feels like I'm starting at +0 Units for everyone here right now because of the new chapter in my career as a paid "tout." Not sure I'll ever get used to that word -- I prefer to be called a "professional NFL handicapper," because first and foremost that's what I am. I offer so much more than the average tout, it's quite frankly laughable to even compare what I do and the level of service I'll be providing to the average tout.
I'm excited by this new opportunity to serve clientele only. It's hard to put a price on the value of what I've given away over the years, but it doesn't concern me. I got into handicapping because the NFL is my favorite sport to watch and I was raised as a card player (though not a gambler, that came about later as a natural result of an upbringing that revolved around constant game playing and card playing (bridge, chess, backgammon to name a few.)) The usual twinges of excitement I feel as each Sunday approaches will be a little stronger this week as a result of this new venture.
I'm excited by this new opportunity to serve clientele only. It's hard to put a price on the value of what I've given away over the years, but it doesn't concern me. I got into handicapping because the NFL is my favorite sport to watch and I was raised as a card player (though not a gambler, that came about later as a natural result of an upbringing that revolved around constant game playing and card playing (bridge, chess, backgammon to name a few.)) The usual twinges of excitement I feel as each Sunday approaches will be a little stronger this week as a result of this new venture.
An Incredibly Brief Suggestion for Bankroll Management
If you're here reading this I already trust you to be of above average intelligence with an understanding of proper bankroll management etc. Still, a brief word...
My style is high volume, low risk. One of the most naive things you'll hear in forum-land is that you can't beat the NFL if you make more than a few plays every week. Well, that may be true for someone who can only come up with a few plays a week that rate to win 53% of the time or better. That ain't me, lol, and that's not the approach that many professionals take. My long-term winning record and history of identifying the soft opening lines (as evidenced by the lines adjusting in the direction I've bet at a very high percentage) are the only proof necessary that the majority of the bets I recommend (teasers aside, lol) have a positive expectation.
So, a 1 Unit bet for me is typically between 1 to 1.5% of my bankroll. With the number of plays that sometimes ends up being a pretty significant amount of the bankroll wagered every week, but that's how the money is made. You don't pass up bets that will make you money over time. I've never used a Kelly criterion to size my wagers according to my listed values, as I've never analyzed the results of my values to see if the higher values truly do have higher value. It's an embarrassing admission, I suppose, and may irk the hardcore statisticians out there. I'm not a statistician, which may be surprising for someone who uses a spreadsheet for their handicapping, lol. I do very little analysis of past data, just the occasional check for correlation to get a feel for which stats may have the most impact on certain results.
At the public thesportscruncher.blogspot.com site, there is a link to FAQ for sportsbetting at the 2+2 forum. I recommend becoming familiar with the material there.
My style is high volume, low risk. One of the most naive things you'll hear in forum-land is that you can't beat the NFL if you make more than a few plays every week. Well, that may be true for someone who can only come up with a few plays a week that rate to win 53% of the time or better. That ain't me, lol, and that's not the approach that many professionals take. My long-term winning record and history of identifying the soft opening lines (as evidenced by the lines adjusting in the direction I've bet at a very high percentage) are the only proof necessary that the majority of the bets I recommend (teasers aside, lol) have a positive expectation.
So, a 1 Unit bet for me is typically between 1 to 1.5% of my bankroll. With the number of plays that sometimes ends up being a pretty significant amount of the bankroll wagered every week, but that's how the money is made. You don't pass up bets that will make you money over time. I've never used a Kelly criterion to size my wagers according to my listed values, as I've never analyzed the results of my values to see if the higher values truly do have higher value. It's an embarrassing admission, I suppose, and may irk the hardcore statisticians out there. I'm not a statistician, which may be surprising for someone who uses a spreadsheet for their handicapping, lol. I do very little analysis of past data, just the occasional check for correlation to get a feel for which stats may have the most impact on certain results.
At the public thesportscruncher.blogspot.com site, there is a link to FAQ for sportsbetting at the 2+2 forum. I recommend becoming familiar with the material there.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)