Week #14 Plays Hotmail not working Emergency Post

2 Units:

HOU +7 (-120 BOUGHT THE HOOK)
HOU/GB UNDER 48
JAC +7
JAC/CHI UNDER 41

1/2 unit:

HOU +6.5/UNDER 48 PARLAY
JAC +7/UNDER 41 PARLAY

The forecasts are almost identical for Green Bay and Chicago this week -- 17 degree highs, low chance of precip at 10%, and medium winds in the 11-14 mph range. That's very cold -- it's harder to catch footballs when it gets that cold, so the running games will be emphasized. Green Bay has no advantage in the running game match up and actually is at a disadvantage in the passing game match up with the regression of their pass defense (due in some part to injuries they still have). Chicago does have small advantages in the run and pass match ups, but not enough to warrant being a 7 point favorite in very cold, windy weather (the wind forecast is higher in Chicago than GB). I guess there's the concern that JAC has packed it in this year, but I really don't think that happens with most teams until the last week or until the 4th quarter of a game they're losing badly (like last night's game), and then it's only the defense that tends to go limp, not the offense.

Both HOU and JAC are warm weather teams, but they will also be starting quarterbacks with more NFL experience than either the Packers or Chicago, so I don't think the weather will be much of an advantage for the home teams.

2 Units on these plays as at worst I expect some middling opportunities on the totals, though I'll probably let them ride if the forecasts stay the same.