***UPDATED Sunday 12:59 pm EST***
I'm also going to keep a record of how the green and yellow plays fair versus the current Saturday lines posted here(not going to attempt to do so versus the sometimes wildly changing, steaming closing lines) grading the green plays as 1 Unit and the yellow plays as 2/3rds of a Unit.
I just added what will probably be the last (potentially) major modifier to my linesmaking in a while, which has tightened up the lines even further. In a nutshell, it's a rescoring of the offensive and defensive performances based on the injury/starting personnel statuses of the opponent for each game played. For example, any team that played the Vikings while the Vikes had Tarvaris Jackson starting at QB now has a deduction to their pass defense numbers for that game equal to the difference between the Vikings' pass offense numbers when starting either Jackson or Frerotte. Final injury updates will be applied late Friday evening, so the final lines for the week will be available either late Friday or Saturday morning.
The two plays most affected by this update are the Dolphins and Colts, as I'm now showing very slight value on both the Bills and Titans. No harm done on the Dolphins play as the line has moved in our favor on that one, so I'm probably going to look for the best spot to get off of the play with a bet on the Bills and shoot for the little middle with the cheapest juice possible. Not much line movement on the Colts play yet, so that's a wait and see situation where I'll be looking to bet the Titans -4 at small juice or at -3.5 if it becomes available for reasonable juice. Worst case scenario is a bet on the Titans at -4, eating the 1/10th unit vig.
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