Week #8 Plays

1 Unit:

As I haven't shown any value on the Colts for most of the week now with my lines, I'm getting off of the ATS play with a 1 Unit bet on the Titans -4(+102 Matchbook), which after the commission fee ends up being a juice free way to get off of the the play. The way my luck has been running on Monday night, it's probably a good thing, lol. I'll let the ML play on the Colts ride.

MIA/BUF OVER 40

ARI +4.5 (JUST PUT IN AN UPDATE - ONLY SLIM VALUE ON ARI NOW)

WAS -8

WAS -7 (-120 BOUGHT THE HOOK -- PLAYING FOR ANOTHER UNIT)

WAS/DET UNDER 44

WAS/DET UNDER 46 (For another Unit, no idea how in the hell this moved up to 46)

NYG/PIT UNDER 44

IND/TEN OVER 42 (41's available now, a rare mover in the wrong direction, lol. Worth a Unit at Over 41, 3/4th of a Unit at Over 42.)

NO +3.5

NO/SD OVER 46.5 (Went from 45 to 46.5 right as I was about to post!)
*** Weather forecast for London has 21 mph winds with 20% precip. and 70% humidity. I don't think the line is going to go any higher than the 47 it's available at now as a result. I'd probably wait and see how the weather develops if you haven't made this play. If you've made the play, it's a fingers crossed and hope that the weather doesn't turn out to be too windy play. You may even consider getting off of the play if you can find attractive juice or a 47.5. I'm going to continue to monitor the lines.

NO/SD Under 46 -- Late night buy back on the this total, which is showing signs of dropping more. I think people are counting on the field becoming a chewed up mess. Nothing to do but monitor the weather and lines and see if it's worth getting back on the Over or not later.

NO/SD Over 45 -- The weather looks to be dry (after morning rain turning to afternoon light rain) with winds under 10mph by the London 6pm kickoff, so if they keep the field covered during the day it should be in okay condition. Even with applying a 2 to 3 point deduction for the different grass type on the field leaves plenty of value on the Over, especially now that we're able to get on the fairly key number of 45. I only see this number creeping back up before gametime if the weather forecast holds.

PHI -7 (-120 bought the hook)

MIA +2 (very slim value now)
BUF -1 (-104 Matchbook)

PIT -2.5

NYJ/KC OVER 38 (Playable value at the opening 38, not enough on the current 39.5)

CIN +10

PHI -2/WAS -1.5 6 POINT TEASER

IND +4

SEA/SF Under 42.5

STL/NE Under 43.5

STL +7.5 (-120 bought the hook) ***Not surprisingly this number is starting to show up at +7.5 -115 at a couple of shops. Bettors are going to be in love with the Patriots this week after the drubbing of the Broncos on national tv. That's cool, I'm still calling for the outright Rams win, lol.

SF -5.5 (1/2) & SF -5 (1/2) (I'd downgrade SF to a 3/4 unit play now.)

PHI -6 1ST HALF

WAS -4.5 1ST HALF (-115)

BAL -0.5/WAS -1.5 6 POINT TEASER

TB +8/WAS -1.5 6 POINT TEASER

ATL/PHI Over 45

3/4 Unit:

CLE +6.5 (moved off of +7 before I could post it earlier--with small update I'd pass on this one now, very slim value.) ***Actually favor JAC by a small margin now***

CLE/JAC OVER 40.5 (Value at the opening number, but not now at 41.5)

NYJ -12
As you can see from my original lines which I posted last night, I'm showing excellent value on the Jets at home this week versus the pathetic Chiefs. The line of 11, and then 11.5 are not key numbers, so I waited to see if there was any chance that the line would drop down to 10.5 to buy down to 10. No such luck. In spite of the poor performance of heavy chalk lately, it looks like the early money is coming in on the Chiefs' fade train.

HOU/CIN OVER 43.5 (I'd hang on to the play if already made, pass it if not.)
Currently 43.5 at BookMaker, 44 at most other places, it looks like. Probably worth a 1/2 Unit if you can only get 44. HOU right now is a team where you have to look for reasons to not bet the Over. My line is 46.6 right now.

TB ML (+110)

1/2 Unit:

PHI -6/OVER 23 1ST HALF PARLAY

Jets -7 1st Half (-115)

Colts ML +175

Chargers ML +145

Rams ML +290

I can't stress enough how badly Washington is going to murder Detroit next week! In the battle of the two murder capitols of the US the huge edge goes to THE capitol.

Ah, that's more like it. The WAS/DET O/U, which inexplicably shot up to 46 at BookMaker for a while, is back down to 44.5. I've seen some completely accidental/wrong lines hung on games early before, lol, but my best guess here is that the books were hit with the old bait and switch on this one -- a small flood of money early to push the Over up to 46 (past the fairly key 45) and then whammo, the real money moves in on the Under 46. I hope some of you got the Under at better than 45. This is one of my strongest plays of the year based on my lines. Detroit will struggle to do anything versus the Redskins' defense, and the Redskins are going to run the ball chewing the clock with a lead for most of this game, especially the second half, just like we saw in the SEA/TB game tonight.