Bucs @ Chiefs

The Bucs continue their western trek by pointing the compass north from Dallas to Kansas City this week. They’re hoping their fortunes are pointing up as well, as an inability to score a single touchdown on 262 offensive yards last week meant they scored in the single digits (9 points) for the first time this season, as well as being only the second time they’ve scored less than 20 this season. They outgained the Cowboys by 90 yards, so it was a particularly stinging loss for a team needing every win possible in the resurgent NFC South this year.

The Chiefs return to Arrowhead after taking the Jets to the wire last week, giving up the game losing score with a minute to play. They had their second best offensive game of the year, accruing 330 yards. Defensively, they were still one of the worst in the league, surrendering 421 yards. How bad has their run defense been? They’ve allowed a whopping 198 yards rushing per game to opponents this year. Not good news when you’re facing the Bucs’ 9th ranked rush attack. The Bucs will not have Warrick Dunn available for this game, as the Bucs are planning on resting the pinched nerve in his back after giving him limited carries last week. Gruden regretted playing him at all last week, he was quoted as saying. That means Earnest Graham will continue to get the bulk of the carries, as well as playing as a blocking full back occasionally, the Bucs are so thin at RB right now. Still, it’s not a huge concern, as running against the Chiefs requires nothing more than any old run of the mill running back holding onto the ball and running downhill through a gaping hole.

Larry Johnson and Spitgate continue to be news in KC. Apparently coach Edwards is so down on LJ right now that he’s going to continue benching him without the league or the law mandating him to do so. The carries, therefore, will continue to be handled by Kolby Smith. 3rd stringer Jamaal Charles is banged up and “?” to go, so the Chiefs clearly have plenty of running back woes of their own. The Chiefs have only gotten more than 102 yards rushing in a game twice this season – 184 versus the Falcons, and 214 versus the Broncos – two teams with sub-par run defenses. The Bucs have the 6th rated run defense, so the Chiefs will be hard pressed to have any success on the ground in this match up.

An interesting development that should affect what we see in this game is the semi-spread offense the Chiefs went with last week. As their offense and season have been so poor, they had nothing to lose by trying something new last week with the mobile Thigpen back at QB. They ran some no-huddle and shotgun rollouts, the kind of offense Thigpen played in college at Coastal Carolina. As they rate to be playing from behind for the entire 2nd half, odds are they’ll do it again this week in an effort to gain ground versus the Bucs, who oddly enough were the 3rd worst team in the league last year when defending 5-wide sets. Still, the Bucs have the 5th ranked pass defense, and Thigpen may not be able to avoid any turnovers two weeks in a row.

The Bucs have not had a particularly explosive passing game this year, ranking 19th. Their best/only deep threat, Joey Galloway, has been hampered by injuries. Still, they’ve got some solid pass-catching tight ends and wide receivers. WR Antonio Bryant is having a career-resurrecting season with a combination of good on the field play and no off the field blunders. The Chiefs defensively are again near the bottom of the pack with the 31st ranked pass defense, with only the Lions being worse than they.

Clearly the Bucs have the advantage in just about every imaginable match up. The Chiefs had one of the strongest punters in the league with Dustin Colquitt, but he’s sidelined with a groin injury right now. They’ve also switched kickers, and just added a new long snapper. If any team in the league is primed to have a blocked or botched punt/field goal attempt this week, it’s the Chiefs. They figure to have a lot more punt attempts than field goal attempts this week, so the Bucs could find themselves with very favorable field position on more than one occasion. This will help the Over. The Chiefs have given up 34 points or more in 3 of their 7 games this season – this will help the Over. The Chiefs will most likely run their variation of the spread with the no-huddle and shotgun for the second week in a row, this will help the Over. As of this writing, there are still 36.5s available on the board, which is on the right side of 37 when betting the Over. The weather will be mostly cloudy with 12-17 mph winds, not poor enough conditions to affect the offenses, really. I recommended the Over 37 earlier in the week for 1 Unit. Now that the Chiefs will be running an offense more conducive to the Over (and Bucs starting SS Phillips is out with a broken arm), there is even more value on the Over. I’d recommend taking an additional half Unit on the Over 36.5.

Final Score Prediction: Bucs 31 – Chiefs 13