Ravens @ Browns

Any game involving the Ravens will inevitably be labeled as “physical,” and this one versus the division rival Browns will be no different, lol. The Browns will seek revenge from a week #2 loss that saw them play okay but lose as a more or less result of two interceptions thrown by Anderson. Anderson and the Browns have been putting it together on offense in recent weeks since getting some players back. They’ve won as 7 point dogs versus the Giants and Jaguars, while narrowly losing a game versus the Redskins in which they were badly outgained. They really struggled offensively versus the best defense of those 3 teams I just mentioned – the Redskins. Here they face a Ravens’ defense with similar, and slightly better, numbers than the Redskins. The one thing they’ll have going for them this game are the numerous injuries to the Baltimore secondary, the same thing that cost Baltimore many a game last year. The Ravens’ pass defense has actually been pretty average after the second week of the season. That coincides with the injury to safety Dawan Landry. It would appear that Jim Leonhard taking his place has been a significant drop in skill at the position. Landry will be back in a week or two. CB McCallister, a 2 time Pro Bowler, has been dealing with injuries and it looks like he may be done for the year. Aging and perpetually gimpy Samari Rolle may be back for this game. If you like watching a cornerback running 2 steps behind the receiver, tune in if Samari sees significant playing time. Any DB guarding a Cleveland WR will be giving up a step, actually.

I better slow down before I talk myself out of the Ravens, lol. I am making a case for the fact that the Browns will be able to score some points in this game, though. No one has had a successful running game versus the Ravens in quite some time (26 consecutive games without giving up a 100 yard rusher, I believe?), so the Browns will need to air it out to win this game, and they are blessed with weapons for just such an attack. The Browns’ vertical passing game will help the Over in this game.


So you can mark the Browns down for about 17 points (minimum) versus a defense that allows 18.8. How will the Ravens’ offense fare? Even better. They have the luxury of having match up advantages in both the running and passing games, offensively. I project the Ravens to do better than league average in both yards per run and yards per pass, though their biggest advantage will be running the ball. As the Browns will have to defend the run first on most non-obvious passing downs, Flacco should find comfortable gaps in the defense to throw the ball to when passing, and play action should be particularly effective. Teams that run the ball well have a big advantage offensively because the quarterbacks will find themselves under less pass-rushing pressure with fewer defenders in the secondary time after time. The Titans didn’t have a great game running the ball versus the Colts last week, as the Colts were committed to stopping the run, but as a result, Kerry Collins found many soft spots to throw to and completed enough passes to keep drives alive and win the ball game. Flacco also has a strong arm and can throw an accurate deep ball, so both of these teams have home run potential on any given play. Just like the Titans knew the Colts were defending the run first and so came out passing the ball more on early downs, so will the Ravens. Offenses have to punish defenses who over-commit to stop either the run or the pass.

Clearly Flacco has had some road woes this year, hurting his team with costly turnovers. It’s a positive sign, though, that he had his best passing game of the season in his last road start at Miami, and followed that up with another good outing last week versus the Raiders. The rookie QB, like Matt Ryan, is showing improvement in his play both at home and on the road.

Putting the pieces together, the Ravens should have a good offensive day due to their now more balanced attack versus a below average Browns’ defense. The Browns will run the ball as long as they’re mildly successful or failing that, just enough to keep the Ravens’ defense honest. Yes, it’s true that Jamal Lewis had a good yards per carry average on only 12 carries versus the Ravens in week #2, but good luck maintaining that average for 20+ carries, as recent history suggest that will be a near impossibility. The Browns may talk run, but they have to know that to beat the Ravens they’ll need to do what the Colts did a few weeks ago and exploit the only advantage they have in this game, their speedy TEs and WRs versus an injured and statistically declining Ravens’ secondary.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 22 – Browns 17 (with Matt Stover kicking 5 field goals for the Ravens, lol)

The weather forecast as of Friday still looks pretty mild, so any number under 37 is a gift for the Over. Close games like this one rates to be feature teams trying to score all the way until the final possession, and as I like to point out, a 17-17 tie at any point is a winner on any Over below 37 barring a scoreless OT.