Falcons @ Eagles

The Falcons, with their new star running back, Michael Turner, and their new rookie quarterback, Matt Ryan, have become a bit of a sexy team in this 2008 season. Sharps are more interested in cash than sex, however, and the opening line of Eagles -7.5 rose to -9 over the course of a day, though a small bit of the betting furor seemed to coincide with the announcement that Brian Westbrook would be back in the lineup for the Eagles. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a team with a top 10 passing game and a bottom 10 running game experience so much line fluctuation based on the playing status of a running back before, as the Eagles’ pointspreads this year have seemingly ballooned and bombed based on Brian’s status. It’s comical, and perhaps a bit head-scratching, to see that the only time the Eagles’ run game has averaged more yards per carry than their opponent’s normally allow is in the two games that Westbrook didn’t play this season. In the two games without Westbrook the Eagles were +0.9 and +0.8 yards per carry better than their opponent’s average, while with Westbrook starting the best they managed was -0.1 compared to the opponent’s average, and have averaged -0.8 in his four starts (though he didn’t finish at least one of those games he started). Some of this correlation is due to Shawn Andrews’ injury at RG. Still, of the 4 games he didn’t play, 2 were good rushing games without Westbrook, and 2 poor rushing games with Westbrook.

The Eagles’ run defense started off the season in dominating fashion, but has been steadily backsliding in recent weeks. Whether the bye week helps them regain defensive form versus the #3 ranked Atlanta rush offense remains to be seen. The Eagles will want to minimize the Falcons’ running success by playing a fairly up tempo offense in an effort to build a lead that will force the Falcons to pass more often in the second half, where Philly’s aggressive blitz schemes can force the rookie Ryan into mistakes. Philly has a dangerous defense when leading a game late, as evidenced by the turnovers and scores they collected versus the 49ers in the last few minutes of their last game. Philly is more than capable of building a lead with the sizeable advantage they have with the passing matchups, where their 8th rated pass offense faces the Falcons’ 28th rated pass defense. The Eagles can really light it up versus sub-par defenses, they’ve scored 37 or more points in 3 of their 6 games so far this year. They’ve been able do this without the services of WR Kevin Curtis, who returns to the lineup this week, and Reggie Brown (played in one game so far this year), who looks to be recovering well enough from a groin injury to play this week. Though the Eagles have seen an offensive downturn since losing RG Shawn Andrews to a back injury, they’ll have more offensive weapons on the field this week than they’ve seen all year. If the Eagles score the 37 points they look primed to do this week, it’ll be hard for the Falcons to score the 28 points necessary to push the current spread, let alone cover it, as only Dallas has scored more than 26 points versus the Eagles this year, and the Eagles have only allowed an average of 10.7 points in their 3 home games this year. I have the Eagles scoring less than 37 this week, but wouldn’t be at all surprised if they did. I think the Falcons will get within sniffing distance of 20 points, but will not scratch it.

Matt Ryan is no doubt improving and is already looking like a career starter in this league only 6 games into his NFL career. Still, this game will be a very tough test for him and odds are he won’t get the defensive help necessary to cover this number by just managing the game. It’s still a road rookie with a vastly inferior defense versus Donovan McNabb when it’s all said and done.

Final Score Projection: Falcons 17 – Eagles 31