An Incredibly Brief Suggestion for Bankroll Management

If you're here reading this I already trust you to be of above average intelligence with an understanding of proper bankroll management etc. Still, a brief word...

My style is high volume, low risk. One of the most naive things you'll hear in forum-land is that you can't beat the NFL if you make more than a few plays every week. Well, that may be true for someone who can only come up with a few plays a week that rate to win 53% of the time or better. That ain't me, lol, and that's not the approach that many professionals take. My long-term winning record and history of identifying the soft opening lines (as evidenced by the lines adjusting in the direction I've bet at a very high percentage) are the only proof necessary that the majority of the bets I recommend (teasers aside, lol) have a positive expectation.

So, a 1 Unit bet for me is typically between 1 to 1.5% of my bankroll. With the number of plays that sometimes ends up being a pretty significant amount of the bankroll wagered every week, but that's how the money is made. You don't pass up bets that will make you money over time. I've never used a Kelly criterion to size my wagers according to my listed values, as I've never analyzed the results of my values to see if the higher values truly do have higher value. It's an embarrassing admission, I suppose, and may irk the hardcore statisticians out there. I'm not a statistician, which may be surprising for someone who uses a spreadsheet for their handicapping, lol. I do very little analysis of past data, just the occasional check for correlation to get a feel for which stats may have the most impact on certain results.

At the public thesportscruncher.blogspot.com site, there is a link to FAQ for sportsbetting at the 2+2 forum. I recommend becoming familiar with the material there.