Redskins @ Lions

The Lions have covered the spread the last two weeks, both times in losing efforts. In Minneapolis two weeks ago they somehow managed to lead for most of the game versus the Vikings until giving up a game losing field goal late in the contest. I say “somehow” because they were outgained 212 to 392 yards. Yup, they were almost doubled up in yards and only lost by 2 points (the very two points the Vikings scored when Orlovsky rolled out of the pocket in the endzone and right out of bounds for a good ten yards. You’ll have to excuse Orlovsky, though, as it was his first start in the NFL). Hmm, methinks a turnover differential must have come into play…(checking game book)…yup, 3 Viking turnovers to the Lions 1. Last week the Lions outscored the 4th quarter coasting Texans 11-0 in said 4th quarter to only lose by 7 (pushing the opening number wager on the Texans I recommended. Getting the early lines made a difference in a lot of games last week, more so than usual). The big play for the Lions was a 94 yard pitch and catch to Calvin Johnson versus a dinged up and deficient Houston secondary. Even with that field-spanning play they were still outgained 326 to 404 yards. Take that play away and they were 30 yards within being doubled up in yards by a Texans’ team that couldn’t be bothered to score for a cover in the 4th quarter. Orlovsky hasn’t been completely miserable in replacing Kitna by virtue of starting against two subpar pass defenses. No such luck this week as he faces the #4 ranked pass defense of the Redskins. At least he gets a home start this week, though I’m not sure how interested Detroitians are in the Lions right now, and any fans showing up may be left with little to cheer for beyond lessened exit traffic due to a steady, coordinated exodus beginning in the 3rd quarter if this game gets out of hand early (and it’ll take a lot of luck for the Lions for it to not to).

The Redskins have been dealing with a few injuries to their defense, but they are injuries they’ve been dealing with the entire season, so their stats are fairly indicative of the level of play they’ll be capable of in this game. The Lions had a couple of injuries to their offensive line a couple of games ago, but as of last week were starting the same week #1 line with the exception of Damion Cook taking over the starting LG position from 10 year man Edwin Mulitalo. The Redskins offensive line has been healthy this season (as opposed to the disastrous early season injuries they suffered last year), with the only shake up being Jon Jansen starting at RG the last few weeks instead of Stephen Heyer, though both players are rated fairly equally, if I’m not mistaken.

I’ll dispense with the gory match up disadvantages for the Lions in this game, and head straight to the numbers. Redskins’ #2 run offense vs. Lions’ #30 run defense. Redskins’ #18 pass offense vs. Lions’ #32 pass defense. Lions’ #20 run offense vs. Redskins’ #7 run defense. Lions’ #24 pass offense vs. Redskins’ #4 pass defense.

I think the Redskins will be plenty motivated to maintain a healthy lead in this game, as they’ve seriously underachieved in turning their offensive yards into points the last two weeks, letting the Rams hang around and beat them at the buzzer, while narrowly beating Cleveland after the Browns missed a long game-tying field goal at the end of the game last week. They outgained the Rams by 168 yards, and the Browns by 115. Neither of those games should’ve been as close as they ended up being. Against the Lions’ poor defense and 26th ranked red zone defense, they can’t help but convert more of those yards into points while severely limiting any offensive success on the part of the Lions. All we need is an average amount of luck and an average amount of effort from these two teams for the Redskins to cruise to a 14 point victory.

Final Score Projection: Redskins 27 – Lions 13