Bills @ Patriots

Another week, another opportunity to fade the New England Patriots. I haven’t backed them since week #2 when they opened as underdogs versus the Jets in their first post-Tom Brady game. That game saw Brett Favre making only his second start for the Jets, and his unfamiliarity with the offense hurt his team more than Cassel making his first start hurt the Patriots, as Cassel ended up with slightly better numbers and no interceptions versus one for Favre. I ended up with a winner on the Patriots as they won on the road, but I’ll be danged if I haven’t bet against them every single week since then, going 3-3 in the process.

New England isn’t the same team that entered their week #2 contest minus only their franchise quarterback. They’ve lost running backs at a fairly alarming rate, but don’t seem much worse the wear for it – running backs are generally the products of their offensive lines and the Patriots O-Line has done a commendable job run blocking this year. They ran draw after draw versus the Colts last week, who were afraid to commit extra defenders to stop it, as they kept Bob Sanders back shaded to Randy Moss’ side of the field as they entered the game a bit thin at cornerback after losing their best cover corner in Marlin Jackson the week before. Credit the Patriot play calling for taking what the defense gave them, giving them the cover, if not the win.

The Patriots’ more grievous injuries have accumulated in their secondary, including the leader of the bunch, SS Rodney Harrison. A couple of rookies were pushed into starting roles versus Peyton Manning last week. How did they fare? Not well, really, as Peyton completed 72% of his passes at a very nice clip of 8.8 yards per pass. How on earth did the Patriots stay within 3 points of the Colts with such poor pass defense? By shortening the game in an astonishingly effective manner. Arctic ice caps melted faster than the pace of play last week. Each team only had 7 offensive possessions, wherein the Patriots’ past games each team averaged 11.1, and 10.4 each in the Colts’ prior games. So credit really does go to the Patriots game plan which put them in a position to almost tie this game at the end (thank you David Thomas for the late hit which ensured that 2 teasers and a 5 team ML parlay involving the Colts would cash). The Patriots will even be without one the aforementioned rookie CBs this week, after losing Wheatley to an injury last week. They’ve signed 31 year old Jason Webster off the street for this game, a player who was with them in the preseason but didn’t make the cut.

The Bills, meanwhile, come into this game having dropped 3 of their last 4 after their fast 4-0 start. They’ve been accruing a few injuries of their own, most notably to DE Aaron Shobel, WR Josh Reed, and as of last week, SS Donte Whitner. They have some nagging injuries along the offensive line as well, and are forced to start Duke Preston at center again this week, and he was man-handled by the Jets’ big Kris Jenkins last week. It won’t get any easier against Vicious Vince Wilfork this week. Still, the Bills’ last two losses were not the statistical beatings that the final scores indicated. They were only outgained by the Dolphins by 23 yards, and by 6 yards to the Jets. The Bills have suffered from repeated squandered drives deep in enemy territory due to turnovers, missed kicks and failed 4th downs. That’s something that you can’t count on happening to them week in and week out. Those turnovers and failed drives mostly begin with pressure on quarterback Trent Edwards. He’s been sacked 2.84 times a game, including 5 by the Jets last week. The Patriots, however, just don’t get after the quarterback that well, averaging 1.75 sacks a game.

Matt Cassel, as a fellow sacked-happy quarterback, will also benefit from a team that doesn’t pressure opposing quarterbacks very well. As a matter of fact, the Bills have even fewer sacks per passing plays defensed then the Patriots. With both quarterbacks having more time in the pocket this week than they’ve had on average, enough downfield passes should be made to keep the scoring up in spite of the Patriots’ new found love of chess match paced play. The Bills have every incentive to try and stretch the field versus the Patriot’s inexperienced secondary this week. Their running game has gone south, hit the border, and has been stoppable by anyone showing up in a uniform, be it a defender or border patrol. The Patriots’ run defense is still a touch below average ranked 18th, but that’s a far cry better than their 28th ranked pass defense. So the Bills enter this contest with their 27th ranked rush defense and their 13th ranked pass offense. Hmm…looks like they’ll only be running enough to keep the Patriots’ defense honest, if that.

The Bills don’t have any glaring defensive weaknesses to exploit, so it’ll be up to the Patriots to grind out yards and points yet again. Heck, the Patriots had to grind it out versus the Rams’ defense, of all defenses. Cassel to Moss has connected on only one long touchdown play all season, versus the 49ers. The pressure will be on Cassel to keep on converting third downs, which he and his team have done at a frustratingly decent rate of 43.8%, compared to the 41.1% they’ve allowed opponents. My week doesn’t seem complete without pulling a few newly grayed hairs after watching Cassel sustain drives with improbable pass after improbable scramble to convert third downs.

In the final analysis, let’s not forget that the Patriots’ plodding offense has only cracked the 20 point barrier 3 times this season. Once in the final couple of minutes versus the Rams, once versus the defenseless Broncos, and once versus the 49ers, the only team of the bunch to have a better defense than the Bills. With the Bills having enough success through the air (please do better than zero catches filling in for Josh Reed again this week, James Hardy) to put points on the board and even lead this game late, the Patriots may be forced to open things up a little bit offensively, putting this game over the total. A play on the Bills was recommended when the opening line of +4.5 was hung, and sharp action took the line down to +3.5 within a day, so line movement indicates we’re on the right side of this one. I think the books are cowering in fear on this game, hoping that they can get enough public money on the Patriots -3.5 to not get murdered on this game, as the true line for this game shouldn’t even be favoring the Patriots. It’s very possible they’ve taken more sharp money on the Bills then even the 1 point line movement would indicate, as they definitely don’t want to take this line to -3 or lower, exposing them to middle plays from the early players.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 24 – Patriots 20