***LINES UPDATED SAT. 11/15/08 3:34 AM EST WITH INJURY AND WEATHER INFORMATION***
The failure of most large favorites to cover in recent weeks has led me to take measures to reduce some of the bigger point spreads I've been generating this year. I've also incorporated the "successful run for/against" and "successful pass for/against" stats into my game match ups, which comes into effect when I have a team getting points toward the spread in either the pass or rush but have a lower overall successful for/against rating in that particular category. For example -- I have Indy with the advantage in the passing game this week, but because they have an overall lower successful pass plays for/against combined numbers than the Texans, the point spread bonus they were getting has been reduced. This is a part of the reason why my early numbers favored the Colts slightly, but now favor the Texans, who coincidentally have been receiving most of the betting money so far. This particular adjustment doesn't affect many lines, but it tightens up the lines in all cases where implemented. Overall the lines are tighter this week as a result of the adjustments, but I'm actually happy with that as it would be wishful thinking to think my lines are THAT much better than many of the lines across the board, lol.
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