Thursday Night Football Week #10

Well, we had the halves backwards, lol, as both turnovers in the game led to 7 points for the other team, but still pleased with Denver coming back and winning in spite of the 2nd half play because my original prediction was for them to win. Hit the easy Over as well. Speaking of easy, how easy was the Cutler Over 265.5 passing yards? I really hope a lot of you have 5Dimes as one of your outs, because almost all of the prop plays (have had great nights with these props so far this year -- went 5 of 6 tonight, just missing the sweep when Cutler's pass to Royal was down at the 1 yard line, setting up the running td, though it was lucky to cash the 1st score a TD play as Prater missed a short field goal early) are played there, as well as most of the Team Totals, as they hang lower juice on theirs than other books. Finished up the night almost +2.6 units.

Halftime play:

1 Unit: CLE +0.5 (-120)

My total for the second half is 26.5, so lean Over, but no play.

DEN +1.5 1ST HALF -0.515 0.5 H
DEN SCORES LONGEST TD -0.525 0.5 P
DEN/CLE 1ST SCORE A TD -0.775 0.5 P
DEN +1 1ST DOWNS -0.575 0.5 P
CUTLER THROWS TD 1ST VS. BQ -0.625 0.5 P
CUTLER OVER 265.5 PASS YARDS -0.75 0.75 P
CUTLER OVER 23 PASS COMP. -0.65 0.5 P


Denver will probably only have rookie Ryan Torain at RB tonight (Selvin Young will suit up but is a game time decision with his groin. I reckon he'll be used as little as possible), so Cutler will have to carry the load with his arm tonight. He should have decent success. The Broncos have faced one of the easiest schedules of pass defenses in the league however, and the Browns are about average in terms of the strength that Denver has faced, so I'm not going overboard with these props, just a half unit each. The Browns will probably try to score with Jamal Lewis when they get inside the 10, while the Broncos will be looking to score touchdowns with the pass from anywhere outside the 2 yard line, lol, which is why I like Cutler to throw a TD before Quinn. Jamal Lewis doesn't have long touchdown run speed, so any long touchdowns the Browns get will either come via a turnover (possible), special teams (possible with Cribbs), or a long pass (possible). Still, I like my chances that the Broncos will convert on one long 40+ yard touchdown play tonight, and who knows, they may get the pick six or special teams touchdown themselves.