Week #12 Lines & Values

Well, tonight I finally did it -- I tamed the big favorite lines once and for all. As many of you know, this year I implemented many new changes and updates to my extremely (take my word for it) complicated spreadsheet handicapping setup. One problem I'd been having this year was that I almost always seemed to have the big favorites covering. Now statistically they should have been covering at just a little less than 50%, though this year it has been more like 10%, if that! The problem is not that they haven't been covering, it's that (like I said) I was almost always favoring them. I've been comparing the total number of points assigned to the favorites by my lines versus the actual lines and I've been running at a pretty good clip over the actual amount, hence the need to look at some of the things I've implemented this year, which I did, which caused me to change things, which I did, and now the lines overall slightly favor the dogs, which is typically correct. My totals have been really good this year, they've changed some as well now as a result, and are also much tighter to the actual lines.

Of course, you're wondering how this has affected this week's plays. Good news, we're still on the right side of the lines on 11 of the 14 posted plays, it's just that I'm not showing as much value as I was before. Two of the plays I like the other way now, but that's largely due to line movements which we got good value on, which means we can try to middle these two plays now. The first of these is the total on the Thursday night game between PIT/CIN. My new line is 37.7. I'll be monitoring that line, as soon as it shows any sign of rising off of 34 I'll hit the Over, setting up for a nice middle. The other is the HOU/CLE Over 48.5 we have. My new line is 48.1, very near the opening line. The line is sitting on 50.5 and may rise as the weather doesn't look to be an issue any more come Sunday in Cleveland. I'll also be monitoring that line and if it looks to be coming down I'll play the Under 50.5 giving us a chance to middle on 49 & 50. The only recommended play that I'd pass on now is Green Bay, as I have the Saints barely covering now, so we're not far wrong.

We've been on a tremendous run in spite of the large favorites not covering, and I think this big update will work to our advantage by making us a little more selective especially in terms of those large favorites, lol. Ever since I started doing the Quality Control tables a few weeks ago it's really jumped out at me just how badly you have to dominate a team to cover a double digit spread, so I definitely feel that these lines are more accurate.

This is full disclosure where I simply could have waited until next week to slip in the big changes unannounced. That's not how I am, honesty is essential in this business and I've always strived to be that with what I've been doing in my handicapping. Considering that all of you who aren't new to the service this week are many $$$ ahead, I somehow think you'll be fine with the changes and look forward to seeing how the tighter lines perform as we head down the regular season stretch and into the playoffs.

New lines above, old lines below.

***UPDATED 11/22 11:12 PM EST***



The orange shaded lines were the lines available when the plays were recommended. I haven't moved them as they're the lines I'm grading the quality control tables against.





Updated 11/19/2008 2:26am EST, injuries and weather included.