Monday, November 10, 2008

MNF Week #10

Thank God for one minor miracle at the end of the game -- SF doesn't find the endzone. Not much else good inbetween the opening kickoff and the final gun. The game was decided by the opening kickoff, and the Cardinals failing to get a first down on their last possession gave S. Hill the opportunity to kill the Under Passing Yards bet. Frank Gore drops multiple passes to help kill the receptions and total yards plays. Thankfully those were late and I'm guessing many of you didn't get down on those.

HALFTIME PLAYS

2/3 Unit:

Over 24 (EV)
ARI -9.5

OMG!!!!!!!!!!!

We have it set up perfectly SF receiving the opening kickoff and then the worst case scenario for every single bet on the night is hurt by a kickoff return for a touchdown. Could this week be any unluckier...

Okay, got the ARI first field goal bet, I can calm down a little, but I won't be completely placid until SF makes the first punt of the game on the next possession, lol.

And a 49ers' punt...Stinks, we should've been up 1.5 units already as they made a first down and then punted. Still, with the field goal, up a half unit with the original 3 props already resolved. We can only hope to be on the right side of the plays like these ones, even if shit happens, lol. More ground for ARI to make up though to cover the spread. They moved the ball awful easy on the first drive, let's hope it continues.

Not as many props this week as Shaun Hill will be replacing JT O'Sullivan and it's hard to say how that will affect things.

***Added 3 more 10 minutes before kickoff***

2/3 Unit:

SF FIRST 1ST DOWN (+105)
The Cardinals have deferred 4 of 5 coin tosses, only opting to receive versus Dallas, who had a healthy Tony Romo starting that game. I don't think they fear the SF offense as much as they did Dallas', so I'm pretty sure they'll defer. SF has only won the coin toss twice and once received, once deferred. Overall the league has shown a strong tendency to receive, and even more so versus good offenses, so I think the 49ers are better than even to receive if they win the toss.

SF PUNTS FIRST (-130)
Goes hand in hand with receiving the ball first. If SF does indeed get the ball first, it will be nearly impossible for both of these plays to lose unless they turn the ball over before making a first down. Even if for some odd reason the Cardinals get the ball first they're more than capable of taking it down for a score, lol.

1/2 UNIT:

ARI MAKES 1ST FIELD GOAL (-105)
Arizona is favored to score more points than SF, and some of them are likely to come via field goals. The 49ers have a much better red zone defense than the Cardinals, actually, which can only help this play.

FRANK GORE OVER 4 REC. (-130)
FRANK GORE OVER 120.5 TOTAL YARDS (+105)
S. HILL UNDER 213.5 PASS YARDS (-105)

In addition, we've got ARI -9.5 (+101) and ARI -3 to finish off a teaser with Carolina.

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