MNF Week #11

Man, remind me to never play any props when these two teams get together! I've had great nights on props this year with the two exceptions of games where the weather was supposed to be bad but then didn't end up being bad. C'est la vie. Still turned a small profit on the game despite dropping 3.5 units on the props!

HALFTIME PLAYS:

2/3 UNIT:

CLE +4.5 (-105)
UNDER 21 (-120)
CLE +0.5 3RD Q. (-130)

Wait a second, I thought the Browns would have the wind in the 3rd Q.?

Well, the lack of snow and wind has lent itself to killing some props, but at least we got the 1st Q., 1st H. CLE and 1st H. Over plays to keep us near even. Oh yeah, btw, it's Dawson kicking for CLE, not Stover, who kicks for BAL, lol.



Also added for a 1/2 Unit: CLE +0.5 1st Q (-125 5Dimes)
Have active CLE +4.5 for the game and +3 for the first half for 2/3 Unit each.

***WEATHER LOOKING NOT BAD AT ALL BEFORE KICKOFF --UGH!!!***

1 UNIT: OVER 21 1ST HALF (+113 MATCHBOOK)

Bad weather = less scoring = better chance of there not being 3 unanswered scores. Cold + snow + wind = greater chance of no score in last 2 minutes of 1st half & a greater chance of the first score being a touchdown as missed field goals are more likely. Cold + wet = greater chance of first turnover being a fumble. Bad weather = I don't know about Lindell, but Stover has been a good bad weather kicker over the years. Braylon Edwards = 1 reception in good weather versus Denver last week. Kellen Winslow = 10 receptions versus Denver last week -- poor weather means many short passes coming his way. Fred Jackson = 48 rushing and receiving yards average per game in good weather, so I don't mind paying the vig and taking my chances in poor weather.

The weather looks to be getting worse, so I wouldn't recommend playing the Over in the game unless things look okay before kickoff. If they do, I'd probably just play the 1st half Over and hope the weather holds for one half.

For those of you that have cashed in on any of the "First Team to Make 1st Down" bets of recent weeks (though they didn't all cash because of a bit of bad luck -- SF returning opening kickoff for a TD -- OMG) congratulatios, you're in the "I Beat a Broken Bet" club now, as 5Dimes is not even offering that play for tonight's game, lol. I like CLE 1st Q. and 1st half because the Bills always defer when they win the toss. The Browns have only won one toss and elected to receive, but in this weather they may elect to defer, so I probably would've passed on the play anyway.

This game can't help but remind of the game last year in Cleveland involving these two teams. The weather was horrible, a total blizzard. I loaded up on the "No - 3 unanswered scores" and "No score in last 2 minutes of first half" only to see Matt Stover kick an almost 50 yard FG at the end of the half in abysmal conditions to kill both plays in one fell swoop, as that made the score 8-0 Browns after a botched punt attempt by the Bills resulted in a safety earlier. Such bad luck in that first half as the final score ended up being 8-0 on the back of those 3 first half unanswered scores. I ended up being down 5 units or so that week, my worst week of last year. As many of you know, 5 units down has been the worst week this year as well -- but it was bookended by +25 and +22 (so far this week) weeks!